Are Tired NBA clubs Good or Bad Bet?

The professional basketball season is long arduous task for the players. The 82-game season has a number of nights where the travel is too tough, the sleep too short and the coach’s preaching too boring. For as long as people have been giving advice on how to bet and win in the NBA, one of the most (over) used terms is “a tired team”. What constitutes a tired team?

There are many different ways to mentally and physically tucker out a NBA squad, one of the cruelest is four games in five days. This used to be far more common than it is today, though several teams will still end up with one on the docket. Another is eight or nine games in a two week period. The games themselves are exhausting enough, but there is the morning walk-thru’s or shoot-arounds, possibly a quick film session, where the assistant coaches found a previously unknown weakness to exploit. This all takes a toll.

The most common way teams are wore down these days in three games in four days, with last two back to back. To date there has been 222 such occurrences in the NBA, an average of about seven per team. The league’s schedule-maker has a tricky task, trying to juggle dates around car shows, rodeo’s and empowerment seminars. In researching the third game in four days this campaign, maybe it’s just a coincidence (not really) but the teams fitting this criteria play the last game on the road better than 74 percent of the time (166 road – 56 home).

Now that we’ve established what a supposed tired team should look like and what they are up against, let’s move on. In reading thru various forums for years, a common description those that sell picks will use is the aforementioned - tired team. In the three weeks before the All-Star break, on 59 occasions, coming from 27 different cappers, some form of the word “tired” was used to describe a NBA team and in EVERY situation, these were Play Against teams. This had the feel of a handy way to describe a condition, but as old as a dudeen.

Though I have no axe to grind with those that make a full or part-time living selling sports wagering information, I became curious enough to want to find out if what they are saying is actually true both SU and against the spread.

The research of all 30 teams was broken down this way, playing three games in four days, the last two consecutively.

*Off a SU win
*Off a SU loss
*As a home favorite
*As a home underdog
*As a road favorite
*As a road underdog

The initial aspect was to find out how these NBA teams fit compared to normal circumstances. The so-called “tired teams” are 91-131 SU, 40.9 percent. For the season, all road teams play at 40.1 percent clip and visiting clubs matching this system are 54-112 SU, a much lower 32.5 percent SU record, which in theory is quite logical, thank you Mr. Spock.

This in turn leads to all home teams winning 59.1 percent of the time in 2009-10, yet clubs at home and reportedly tired are 31-25 SU, down to 55.3 percent winning percentage, which correlates to conventional reasoning. The next question is what about against the numbers the oddsmakers put out?

This is where facts and reality meet.

Let’s review areas already mentioned and see how the numbers shake out. Road underdogs are 36-84 SU, winning just 30 percent of the time, seemingly a poor wager. Yet when sifting thru all the losing numbers, these dogs are not nearly ugly as they appear with 58-58-4 ATS record. While 50 percent is not the breakeven point of 52.4 percent, these numbers do not add up to making many, if any at all spread wagers on road underdogs.

Supposedly worn out road favorites are 25-19 SU, a healthy 56.8 percent, yet are only a slightly better than average bet at 23-20-1 ATS. The most important way to look at this angle is if those providing sports wagering information say road favorites are a bad bet playing a trio of games in about 96 hours, the last two back to back, well, it’s just not true, at least this season.

Home teams don’t receive a whole of play from the league in this case and while the favorite and underdog roles are in sharp contrast straight up, they are pedestrian in nature against those setting the lines.

Home favorites are sparkling 27-12 SU, yet dull 20-19 ATS. Picked up the phone and called a long-time friend named Tony who has booked, been on both sides of the counter in Nevada and lives a quieter life in Laughlin, while still making daily trips to casinos to place his bets. I asked Tony why these home favorites don’t often cover, despite solid winning records.

“Typically these are overvalued home teams who are actually tired. They would go thru the motions for 40 minutes and when it is time to win the game, they turn it up a notch and pull through. This is very true against inferior competition.”

This led to another similar question, coming from the opposite direction. Home underdogs are 4-11 SU in this same variable of games and days, yet are 7-8 ATS, why would this be?

“Douglas my friend, very simple, your numbers match up with league averages of home underdogs, which at my last count was running about 50-50 against the number (118-115 ATS). Let’s face it, there is a good reason why teams are home dogs, they’re not very good and teams playing them will not take them very seriously and cover as often as not, making this horse crap bet, if you know what I mean.”

The last two areas of concern were how these NBA teams performed the night after a SU victory or defeat. In each instance, the team was generally unable to muster the energy, though as noted, most of the matchups were away from home.

Teams off a win are 46-53 SU; yet don’t provide an inkling of opportunity to cash on them with 49-48-2 against the spread record.

When a NBA squad off a loss is faced with this circumstance, the numbers would have you believing this a wonderful opportunity to build up the bankroll. Their record is a mere 45-78, 36.5 percent SU. This looks like a sure-fire way to profit, however, instead of this being a negative opportunity to play against a team; it’s actually a positive one! Despite their mediocre record, these teams are 63-57-3 ATS, suggesting the oddsmaker is shading them for public consumption as a worn out club.

After all the digging, not one truly useful angle except this. Teams playing three games in four days, with the last two back to back and the third game is a pick, the road team is 0-4 SU and ATS. Needless to say, the sample is hardly worth the wager.

The real lesson is this, the next time you read about a play against team in the aforementioned situation, you will already know it is not a winning play. The only thing “tired” is using the word to make an unsubstantiated point.