NBA wagering as easy as counting simple numbers

Last week we reviewed the possibilities of what occurs with tired teams, this week we’ll engage in the exercise of NBA squads with no days off all the way to three or days between games for the 2009-10 campaign. As one might expect, teams with roughly 24 hours between games don’t fare well and are generally a losing proposition, though exceptions do exist. It’s a mixed bag for clubs with a day or two off and sometimes, the ATS results might not even tell the whole story! NBA teams with three or more days off are a diverse group, seemingly with no rhyme or reason, but who’s to argue, as long as it leads to a winner! Let’s dive in.

Zero Rest

Among the reasons why the NBA is so difficult to beat wagering on a consistent basis is back to back games. What makes it tougher than say the NHL, which has the same schedule setup, professional basketball is being played with five players for extended periods of time, with usually no more than 10 players seeing the floor for an individual team. Though hockey has six players per squad on the ice at a given time, the shifts are usually no longer than two minutes and as many as 15 players will be skating around the rink for each club during a contest.

This means a player having a bad day with a wife, girlfriend, fellow player (can you say Gilbert Arenas) or coach, could have a direct impact on the game by as much as 20 percent when he is on the floor. Here are the poorest bets one could make this season on teams with no rest. (Note: SU record followed by ATS)

Toronto 5-9, 3-11 ATS
Sacramento 5-10, 4-9-2 ATS

Phoenix 6-9, 6-9 ATS
New York 2-12, 5-9 ATS

Detroit 4-13, 4-12-1 ATS
Cleveland 10-5, 6-9 ATS

The Raptors are especially ugly, losing by 9.2 points per game, with the Pistons misfiring roster nearly as bad at 8.4 PPG. New York and Sacramento are just bad teams, with no rest further enhancing their weaknesses. The Suns are an older team, which would stand to reason why they might struggle in this situation. The majority of the Cavaliers failures have been trying to overcome large numbers from oddsmakers or off big emotional games.

With 30 teams, not everyone fails without rest, some actually succeed, and it’s just the manner in which they do it.

Charlotte 7-8, 10-5 ATS
Golden State 3-10, 9-4 ATS
Milwaukee 10-6, 12-3-1 ATS
Utah 6-7, 8-4-1 ATS
Portland 12-3, 12-3 ATS

The Trailblazers and Bucks are younger teams and they have thrived when confronted with back to back games, winning by 6.6 and 5.2 points per game respectively. The Warriors and Bobcats lack stellar SU records but play closer than what oddsmakers expect them to in piling up spread victories. Golden State has lost by 2.5 PPG and Charlotte by less than point.
Additionally, within this cluster, are more select situations to have a handle on about particular teams. Here is a quick look at the best and worst playing consecutive nights.

Milwaukee (Away/Home) 8-1 ATS
Portland (A/A) 9-1 ATS
Minnesota (A/H) 5-0 ATS
Utah (A/A) 5-0 ATS
Denver (A/A) 1-5-1 ATS

One Day of Rest

This category supports the better teams win at least straight up, with those setting the numbers trying to balance action against premier clubs.

Atlanta 20-9, 17-12 ATS
Boston 20-12, 11-20-1 ATS
Cleveland 27-6, 19-14 ATS
Dallas 22-9, 13-18 ATS
Denver 19-11, 14-16 ATS
L.A. Lakers 23-7, 13-16-1 ATS

Orlando 22-9, 17-13-1 ATS
Phoenix 21-13-12, 23-11 ATS
San Antonio 21-13, 17-16-1 ATS

Utah 21-12, 20-13 ATS

This grouping makes the most sense of any, as a very solid team has advantage of talent, backed with a normal amount of rest. On the assumption all factors are relatively equal, these teams should and do win. Within this, there are nuggets of information to consider.
The Lakers may have losing spread record, however they win these matchups by 7.5 points per game, above their season average of 6.4 PPG, proving those that want to back Kobe and friends are going to pay for them like taking extra baggage on a flight. Boston (+4.2 PPG on the season) is in the same scenario, winning by 4.0 PPG with a day off compared to season average and is really paying the price against the spread.

The exceptions are the Suns and Jazz, winning by 6.1 and 5.3 points per game respectively, more in line with receiving fair market value for their win/loss records. The Hawks are also a fit covering over 58 percent, with a working margin of 4.8 PPG.

One team that is not among the elite, yet has fared well in this position is Memphis at 18-12 and 17-13 ATS, winning by 1.6 PPG.

New Jersey (3-25, 10-18 ATS) fits in virtually every negative aspect of the spectrum, but another squad, Philadelphia, is an equally bad wager at 10-17 ATS, with matching SU record.

Two Days Rest

The next part of the puzzle becomes more specialized, with real winners and losers and some being penalized for who they are.

Cleveland 6-1, 2-4-1 ATS

Dallas 8-0, 7-1 ATS
Denver 7-1, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 2-6, 6-2 ATS
Milwaukee 8-4, 8-4 ATS
New Jersey 0-10, 3-7 ATS
Oklahoma City 8-2, 8-2 ATS
Orlando 4-4, 4-7-1 ATS
Toronto 8-1, 6-3 ATS

The Mavericks have been the class of this bunch, not only with tremendous record, but tearing the opposition apart by 13 PPG. Evidently the Cavaliers and Nuggets have to win by such a large margin also, since their point differentials of +9 and +10.1, only lead to mediocre spread results, again supporting the point that linemakers offer no breaks to public teams. The Raptors and Thunder have thrived with additional rest, being good bets, with the public not paying as close attention to them, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in similar situation. Golden State has been the golden goose as the underdog, covering 75 percent, in spite of only two victories.

Three or more Days Rest

This segment has the fewest amount of plays per team and is the most volatile. How else can one explain the Lakers at 5-0 SU, pounding opponents by overwhelming 14.0 PPG, justify a 2-3 spread record, while Denver is 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, being victorious by 10.2 PPG. Who the opponent is plays into the mix, which one large blowout; combined with several more conventional triumphs can be part of the answer.

The most important lesson to take away from this quadrant is a large amount of rest can either enhance or decline a team’s chances of winning. The extended period of time off might rejuvenate one club, while others might be off kilter without playing and struggle to find there rhythm. Here’s what I mean.

Dallas 1-5, 0-6 ATS
New Orleans 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Philadelphia 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Toronto 4-2, 4-2 ATS

In conclusion, the more you know about how NBA teams perform with variable amounts of rest, the more you put the odds on your side to win bets. This can be as easy as 1 -2 -3.