The New York Mets are doing EVERYTHING right. New York has flown to the top of East Division standings on the strength of seven straight wins. The Mets pitching staff has been imperious, allowing 13 runs in this stretch, which includes hanging all zeros on two occasions. After a slow start, New York’s offense is averaging five runs per game and manager Jerry Manuel hasn’t made a miscue, as his team completed 9-1 homestand, its best since September of 1988.The Mets (13-9, +3.6 units) take their act on the road to a Philadelphia, who has ruled the NL East for the last few years. The Phillies ( 12-9, -0.8) are back home after 4-5 road trip and has misfiring offense that has averaged 3.3 runs per contest the last two weeks. “We’ll take the positives away and go home,” right fielder Jayson Werth said. “We’ve got a lot of baseball left to play so we’ve got to keep doing what we’re doing.”
The Mets are third in baseball in runs permitted at 3.3 per contest and start Jon Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) who has received limited run support (total of 10) in his four starts. Niese has loose body with easy motion, but leaves too many pitches in the hitting zone, accounting for 30 hits in 22 innings. Against good pitching clubs, Philly has feasted (5.3 RPG) with 68-36 record vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game over the last three seasons.
The Phils counter with Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 7.71) in the series opener whose most notable trait this season is inconsistency. "The first month of the season hasn't been very good [for me]," said Kendrick. "I've been pretty erratic. ... I've had some good spots and some bad ones. I'll just have to keep working on it." Kendrick and the Phillies are 20-3 OVER after a win, with New York 16-42 in road games vs. clubs who strand 7.5 or more runners on base a contest.
Philadelphia is a -145 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov10.5. This is expected to be Kendrick’s last start with Joe Blanton possibly activated from disabled list this weekend from injury. Kendrick is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in five starts against the Mets.
Game 1 Edge: New York
Also coming off the DL is closer Brad Lidge, who has been an adventure since 2008 when he converted all 48 saves. Last year he led the big leagues with 11 blown saves and has contributed to his team’s 55.6 percent save percentage in 2010. New York is 9-1 against bullpens that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities this season, but first they have to hit well enough against Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80) to get that far.
Halladay proved he isn’t “Iron Man”, conceding 10 hits and five runs in seven innings at San Francisco Monday, suffering his first loss of the season. This will be Halladay’s first taste of this NL East rivalry. The Phillies have lost eight of last 10 Saturday’s encounters.
The Metropolitans will start one of the hottest pitchers in the National League in Mike Pelphrey (4-0, 0.69). The tall right-hander has not allowed a run in 24 innings thanks to darting fastball and new cutter, which he has spotted precisely. Pelphrey is a 4-2 record and 4.82 ERA in nine starts against Philadelphia; however has 7.17 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Though he only gives up a home run once every 13.6 innings, Chase Utley has tagged four times. New York is 2-6 as visitors with Pelphrey the starter.
This is part of FOX’s Saturday afternoon MLB coverage.
Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia
Ryan Howard broke the longest homerless drought of his career - a span of 65 at-bats - this past Wednesday and will take his rips against Johan Santana (3-1, 2.08). The lefthander’s fastball isn’t as what it was when he was in Minnesota (down about three MPH according to radar guns), nonetheless Santana has become more resourceful in blending other pitches and hitting different spots to keep hitters off-balance, while still maintaining his out-pitch, the dastardly changeup. To date, lefty batters are at the Mendoza line (.200) and right-hand hitters are at .232 against his pitches.
Ageless Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25) could be a father to some of his teammates at 47 years old. Though most guys his age that played the game are pitching coaches somewhere, Moyer continue to defy the odds, with left-handers swingers batting .214 against him. Look for New York to load up with players in the right side of the batter’s box, as they see Moyer’s soft tosses much better and are hitting .306 against him.
This will be the ESPN Sunday Night contest.
Game 3 Edge: New York
Professional bettor, sometimes writer and fulltime smart-aleck Red Wydley provided this week’s series pick.
“The Mets aren’t as good as they’re playing and the Phillies are better than they’ve played. The first game sets the tone, since any reasonable bettor is not going to bet against Halladay or Santana unless they are hoping for a long shot like Homeboykris at the Derby (50-1).
New York lost 12 of 18 to Philadelphia last year and has the momentum to turn the tables. The sample is small but the Phillies are 1-3 against lefties to begin the season, batting .221 and if Niese keeps the ball in the park, the Mets can win the first game. Kendrick had yet another chance to be more than a reliever and blew it with more lousy command (9 W’s and K’s) and dishing out more hits than the Jonas brothers.
I’ll bet the Mets winning streak reaches eight and they win the series and maintain first place lead, for now.”
Series odds: New York +130, Philadelphia -160
3Daily Winners Pick: New York
2010 Record – 2-1
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