Betting Beliefs – Always or Never

The NBA and NHL seasons are rapidly coming to a close and Major League Baseball is heading into its first full weekend. Here are some hard, fast betting rules to live by. You are not going to win every time, but your bankroll with be much thicker or have larger figures than if you decided to go the other way.

ALWAYS bet against “turrible” NBA teams late in the season

Charles Barkley may have different ways of utilizing words in the English language, but Sir Charles knows a “turrible” team when he sees one. Bettors looked at the New Jersey Nets recently after they overcame the dubious NBA record for losses and even covered six games in a row. More than one bettor has been sent down the wrong path betting a team with 11 wins and being outscored by 9.3 points per game.

If it looks like dog poop, smells like dog poop, it probably is dog poop. Don’t forget to add Detroit, Minnesota and the Clippers to this list, since most of the players and coaches have already prepaid their airline luggage charges for out of town on the day the regular season ends.

ALWAYS bet on NBA teams that are streaking and playoff bound

If teams are playing solid basketball, winning and moving up the standings plus covering spreads, it makes sense to at the very least consider them on game by game basis.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 14-5 and 12-6-1 ATS since March 1. During that same time span it’s been the flight of the Phoenix in the desert, with the Suns 14-3, 10-6-1 ATS.

So much for injuries, age and nasty schedule supposedly to derail San Antonio. The Spurs are 15-5 and 14-6 ATS; with Tony Parker missing 75 percent of these games and Tim Duncan getting days off to rest weary knees. Follow the words of Grammy award winner Jerry Reed from his early 70’s hit “When you’re, you’re hot”.

NEVER bet out of boredom

If you have been betting college and professional basketball on a daily basis since early November, looking at a skimpy NBA schedule leaves much to be desired if you do not wager on baseball or want to survey the landscape first. I’ve received a couple of email from guys, “Who do you like in the NHL tonight?” or “Got any hot ones in hockey?”

If you haven’t been following hockey all season, now is not the time to start. Though every game looks like a 50-50 proposition, rest assured you are much more likely to lose than to win just guessing. Advice- play the lottery, payouts are larger, if not your odds.

ALWAYS bet underdogs in NHL series wagering

The first round of the Stanley Cup rivals anything NCAA men’s basketball tournament has to offer. In the past four years, over 37 percent of the lower seeds (12 of 32) have advanced to the conference semi-finals. In addition, three other series went the full seven games, which could have provided even more fuel to this argument. Look for hot goaltender and teams with two or three snipers as underdog wagers.

NEVER bet on -151 or more early April favorites in baseball

The baseball in April is a real crapshoot as unsuspecting teams get off to fast starts and perennial powers haven’t put everything together yet. On April 25 last season, here are the records of various MLB teams.

Toronto 13-6
Seattle 12-6
N.Y. Yankees 9-8
L.A. Angels 6-11
Florida 11-6
Philadelphia 8-8
Colorado 5-11

Last season was fairly typical of what occurs. Favorites of -151 or higher were 33-21 (61.1 percent), but were -2.84 units overall the first two weeks of the season.

NEVER bet on “up and comers” early without pedigree

This is tried and true formula in any sport. Ole Miss (8-4, 6-5 ATS regular season) and California (8-5, 6-7 ATS) were ranked in the Top 15 in preseason polls in college football last season, Georgia Tech (No. 17 in preseason polls) in college hoops this past campaign and what about Miami (7-9 8-8 ATS) and Houston (9-7, 7-8-1 ATS) in the NFL listed as likely playoff teams.

Typically a team needs to prove themselves or they come out of nowhere to be a surprise squad is how it usually happens.

Be careful with the Seattle Mariners and even the San Francisco Giants, until they show they can win consistently to be counted as “play on” teams.

NEVER bet against Pamela Anderson

Though the blonde bombshell is adding up in years and might be 20-1 to win Dancing with the Stars, she always finds a way to get herself in the news or on TV.