Is it wise to wager on Saturday’s NBA home teams?

The Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks are down 0-2 and neither is given much of a chance to come back in their respective series. That doesn’t mean they won’t give complete effort having slept in the own beds and will feel the energy of the home crowd once they hit the floor. But does either team really have enough, can they play a complete game with the minimum amount of failures and get back into the series to make it interesting at the very least. For the sports bettor, this is what to look for if you want to play these teams.

In primetime on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, Utah is looking forward to adding one more weapon to their depleted arsenal, with Andrei Kirilenko “AK47”, expected to play after missing most of two months with a strained left calf.

Kirilenko is unlikely to be a major factor, but if he can limit Kobe Bryant defensively, while invigorating the offense, that becomes a positive for the Jazz.

Utah is 35-9 and 29-13-2 ATS in home games this season and needs to make an adjustment that is contrary to how they play. Coach Jerry Sloan’s motion offense has again led to Utah being one of the top shooting teams in the NBA at 49 percent, but after awhile, you can’t keep going into the paint against the taller Lakers and have shots stamped “return to sender” continually.

Utah has had 20 blocked field goal attempts already in this series and might be better served to drive and kick out to shooters or use drive-and-stab dribble to create 10-foot shots instead of facing rejections or altered shots.

The Jazz are not going to beat Los Angeles by playing swarming defense, they have to out-shoot them. In Utah’s last 10 wins over the Lakers at home, they have had the higher shooting percentage nine times. In fact, the team that shoots the ball better is 14-1-1 ATS in Salt Lake City since Nov. 3, 2004.

The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites with total of 202.5. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-6 OVER in double revenge situations. The Lakers are seemingly much better than Utah and appear to get bored when building any substantial lead but are 18-7 ATS after consecutive contests forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.

It’s hard to believe NBA analyst and former coach Hubie Brown is 76 years old, as he still can make watching an NBA game a pleasure, breaking down the teams and players for the more sophisticated fan, yet make salient understandable points for the casual observer. Brown also has the gift of criticizing a player in a manner that isn’t demeaning but fair, but later finding a positive about that same player later in a telecast, just like a coach.

Brown has had plenty of ammo to work with watching the Atlanta. The Hawks were a no-show in Game 1, losing to Orlando by eye-popping 43 points. As presumed, Atlanta showed much more resolve in the next contest and was tied at 83 with the Magic after three quarters.
However, NBA basketball is about performing when it matters most, the fourth quarter.

Atlanta is like a lot of NBA teams, they lacked that killer instinct to take care of opponent in the last 12 minutes and they were outscored 28-15 by Orlando in the final stanza.

For this 5:00 Eastern matchup on ESPN, Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS off a double digit defeat and has to make up their minds they want to play all 48 minutes. This team had impressive wins in the regular season over good clubs and has to bring that same fire for all four quarters. The other component necessary to victory is Mike Bibby playing like a point guard of distinction.

Atlanta has just 28 assists in two games vs. Orlando and Bibby has a grand total of four. Coach Mike Woodson’s team to often lapses into dribbling without purpose, running down the shot clock and taking forced shot attempts. As John Hollinger of ESPN points out, Bibby’s postseason play has been the weakest of the remaining point guards still in the tournament and the Hawks are not talented enough to hide his poor play like the Lakers can do with Derek Fisher or someone else that comes off the bench in Los Angeles. Bibby’s team needs him, it’s time for his to deliver.

The Hawks are catching 2.5-points as home dogs and they will have to do better than 1-8 ATS off a SU loss if they want to continue this series beyond four games. Going up against the hottest team in the playoffs will test their fortitude, since Orlando is on 12-game winning streak and is awe-inspiring 11-1 ATS.

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