MLB Series Wagering- Rays at Rangers

In American League action, it’s a battle of two division leaders this upcoming weekend for a three-game series. Before the season began, you probably could have made some cash saying on the first weekend of June, you predict the Tampa Bay and Texas would be in first place in their respective divisions, yet that is exactly what has happened. Though the season still has four months left, this is meaning confrontation in the pecking order of the American League.

Neither club enters this series playing their best baseball of the season. Tampa Bay (36-18, +7.9 units) is 4-6 in last 10 games, with the pitching sputtering in allowing 4.9 runs per contest. Manager Joe Maddon has gotten the scouting reports and knows the Rangers are for real.

“They got better,” Maddon told MLB.com. “They’ve really pitched well against us. I think they’re pitching substantially better. And you’ve got Vladimir (Guerrero) playing like he did a couple of years ago right now. And that’s definitely going to make them a better ballclub.”

Texas (28-25, -1) has fallen off their saddle seven of the last 10 outings and seen their lead over Oakland dwindle to zilch; leading the A’s by one percentage point in the AL West standings. What has caused the slide for the Rangers is an inconsistent offense, totaling 26 runs in the three victories and 20 runs in the seven defeats.

In trying to figure out what to expect, both teams are playing from a position of strength. The Rays are marvelous 21-6 on the road and Texas is 18-9 at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Tampa Bay won 7-3 at Toronto on Wednesday and is 16-3 in road games after a win this season and will start Wade Davis (5-4, 4.04 ERA) who has permitted more than three runs only three times in his 10 starts. The 24-year old has needed relief help, pitching more than six innings just twice.

Sportsbooks have Texas as -130 money line favorites behind left-hander C.J. Wilson (3-3, 3.48). After an impressive beginning, Wilson is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA in his past three starts and will have to do his part for his club to improve on 14-3 record vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs per contest. The converted reliever has posted a 1.35 ERA against Tampa Bay in 13 appearances out of the bullpen, however the Rays are 17-6 vs. lefty’s this year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Saturday’s matchup is a FOX regional afternoon telecast. Tampa was 3-6 and just 1-5 at Arlington last season and will look for quick reversal of fortune. The Rays starting pitchers didn’t handle the smallish dimensions of the Rangers ball-yard, allowing better than a run per inning in the 28 they threw in 2009. James Shields (5-3, 3.62) will seek to change this direction for his team. The right-hander has almost a 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, however, working the plate as well as he does leaves him to susceptible to the long ball and he has given up 11 (third most in AL) home runs.

Tommy Hunter was supposed to be part of the Texas rotation from opening day after last year’s 9-6 campaign with a 4.10 ERA. Hunter strained a muscle in his left ribcage in Arizona in March and has made six starts at Triple-A Oklahoma City before being recalled (1-2, 4.05). The Rangers won six of his eight home starts a year ago, but are only 7-19 on Saturday’s.

Watch the line carefully on this contest with the Rays 9-1 coming into the series when the money line is +125 to -125. Shields has not pitched since last Saturday and is 5-0 with five days rest.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

Rich Harden (3-1) will pitch the finale for Texas and he’s brought his club luck, as they have won eight of his 11 starts in spite of 5.33 ERA. Normally when the right-hander has problems, its loss of command and walks too many batters, with low hit totals. That has not been the case in Rangers uniform, as Harden has been wild enough to concede 37 base on balls in 54 innings, but also has been touched for 55 hits.

Watching Matt Garza (5-4, 3.08) pitch, the feeling is something is missing. You witness the mid-90’s fastball that can saw off a bat like beaver and has curve and slider that can freeze hitters. Despite the obvious ability, he is 24-25 in a Rays’ uniform for his career, not always having the right mental makeup when he doesn’t have his A-Game. Against Texas, Garza is 3-3, however is 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA at Arlington.

Game 3 Edge: Texas

Both teams have started to swing the bats better the last few contests, which could lead to totals plays on the Over in the series. The Rays are the better overall team and they can negate the Texas home field edge with how outstanding they have played on the road. This is not a walkover by any means and I’ll throw support to Tampa Bay, but only by the slimmest of margins.

Sports Betting Series odds: Tampa Bay -145, Texas +115

3Daily Winners Pick: Tampa Bay

2010 Record – 3-5