Toronto tilted towards totals system

The AL East is unrelenting unless you draw the Baltimore Orioles. All the teams can hit, have pitching and are more than adequate catching the baseball. Though the Toronto Blue Jays (+10 units) have been terrific this season at 33-27, thanks to hitting home runs and good starting pitching, this week at least they haven’t belonged in the same class as Tampa Bay.

After winning a home series against the Yankees, Toronto began a road trip that started on the west Florida coast, before heading truly west to face National League teams. The Blue Jays have a Major League leading 97 home runs and are tied for second in the American League with 34 quality starts.

Since Tampa Bay (39-20, +8.5) has gone from a one of the worst teams in baseball to one the best, Toronto has had almost no success against the Rays. They are 4-19 the last three years vs. Tampa Bay, after being torpedoed 9-0 and 10-1 in the first two games of this series.

The Jays will attempt to stem the tide, using Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA). The second year left-hander has allowed a total of three runs in 23 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Cecil owns a four-game winning streak and has held opponents to a .170 batting average in this stretch. Even as well as Cecil has pitched, Toronto will need some offense and is 1-10 after scoring three runs or less three straight games.

Tampa Bay is 18-6 against left-handed starters this season and will look to get Wade Davis (5-5, 5.03) back on track, as he has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts. “Wade had a tough night,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said. “Fastball command issues got him. Overall he was just missing his spots.”

Bookmakers have Toronto as +125 money line underdogs, but more importantly the Blue Jays fit a totals system for the final game of the series that is listed at Un9.

Play UNDER on all teams like Toronto when the total is 9 to 9.5, after scoring one run or less two straight games, against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more.

Dating back 13 years, this system is 31-8, 79.5 percent; with the average total score 7.7 runs per game. Other circumstances also lend themselves to this be a winning play as Toronto is 17-5 UNDER after permitting 10 runs or more and Tampa Bay is 10-2 UNDER at Tropicana Field with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.

With home plate umpire Mike Winters 8-5 UNDER behind the plate, the odds could be your favor for this action this evening.