Betting Future Winner of NCAA Tournament

The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.

Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.

7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak

18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller

19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard

7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.

Number of consecutive wins:
26 – Memphis
21- Drake
20 – Davidson, Kansas
18- North Carolina
16- Vanderbilt, Cornell
14- Washington State
13- Indiana
12 – Duke
11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky
10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama

Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.

The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.

Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.

In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.

The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.

Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.

In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.

Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.

A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?

Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.

The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.

Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.