Betting System for First Round NCAA Tournament

The NCAA Basketball Tournament clock is ticking to start yet another exciting and thrilling event. By now, you have filled out your brackets and it is time to get down to serious business. Linemakers from all the wagering outlets in Las Vegas and the state of Nevada have diligently put out numbers designed to attract action on both sides, to gobble up the “juice”. This time of year, no funny business, no theories about oddsmakers setting traps, this is wagering in its purest form, pitting the college basketball bettor against those making the numbers, going mano-a- mano.

In order to pick winners in the first round, you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings. Thus the question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?

What I have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece this system, because once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action. Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.

Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
We. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st

Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now that they have been selected to participate in the field of 65. (The first two numbers) Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month. (Third number) Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The fourth and fifth numbers) The last piece of this exercise is how they finished in their conference tourney. (The last number)

In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary to close the season, against Western Kentucky who has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt post-season tournament. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time. In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power with outstanding individual talent, who seems to be slipping, offering value as dog.

Here is another example; in this case we have two bigger name teams in what could be viewed as a 6 vs.11 first round matchup, with each finishing season differently.

Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals

The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February. Kentucky on the other hand has come on like gang-busters and is easy on the eyes, like one of their biggest supporters Ashley Judd. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.

In the 18 years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.

After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier. Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.

I wrote this article for StatFox.com.