Baseball’s Bettors Good, Bad and Ugly


A couple of weeks into the baseball season, certain trends are emerging on all major league baseball teams. Some are what we thought, others have been misjudged early, and some just have an odor similar to the town dump. Here is a first look at who have been good, bad and ugly bets in 2008.


GOOD

Oakland 9-6 +5.7 units
Who knew a trip to Japan can cure what looked like an ugly team. Maybe the Athletics rubbed themselves with Far East magic potion, which has them all playing better than what they are. Sweeping Toronto on the road and beating C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona in back to back games in Cleveland, now that’s impressive. Nobody believes it will last, since this type of teams pops up every April, nevertheless betting on the Athletics earns sharp bettors A+.

Kansas City 8-6 +4.5 units
Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are both 3-0 for the Royals with ERA’s under one. Kansas City’s pitching and offense are interesting dichotomy, first in runs allowed and next to last in runs scored at 3.3 per game. What is most likely to get worse? Pick spots this month to keep winning with Royals.

Arizona 10-4 +6 units
At least this team made the postseason last year. The D-Backs offense has been scoring runs, leading all of baseball and if Randy Johnson can become a mildly reliable starter at number three or four slot behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, Arizona will be Play On team for some time. With young hitters, slumps are inevitable, watch for when the Snakes have two or three games with seven or fewer hits and go the other way.

BAD
Colorado 5-8 -3.7 units
The big question coming into the season was Colorado for real, or just a team that looked like a Coors Light desert mirage, that got hot late? The Rockies starting pitchers have gotten off to rocky start and any staff that has Mark Redman is hurting. The vaunted Colorado lineup has shown less than a nun’s habit, averaging less then four runs an outing. When they Rocks hit, they’ll win, when not, 50-50 wagering proposition.

New York Yankees 8-7 -2.0 units
The Yankees are almost never going to be a good bet, being frontloaded with too many large numbers as favorites. What has made them lousy April wager is 23rd ranked offense. Jason Giambi has a couple of dingers; however has a batting average like a typical summer day in Death Valley, CA, at .107. Joe Girardi already being accused of over-managing.

New York Mets 6-6 -2.5 units
Johan Santana welcome to the Big Apple. In his very first start in Shea Stadium, he was booed for allowing five runs (three homers) in almost seven innings of work in losing to Milwaukee. Johan, this isn’t a cottage on Lake Tranquility in Minnesota, ya der hey. This New York team seems to be built like house of cards, pull one and the whole thing could come down.

UGLY

L.A. Dodgers 6-8 -3.6 units
Part of the problem for the Boys in Blue is bad luck. Facing Jake Peavy twice in the first two weeks doesn’t help and catching aspiring Arizona in the middle of hot streak only exasperates early issues. With steady Joe Torre in the dugout, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley soon to be hitting stride, Dodgers SHOULD be O.K.

Cleveland 5-9 -7.4 units
Was this team really THAT close to eliminating Boston last year? No matter what time of year, it is never good when your closer (Joe Borowski in this instance, now on DL) has an ERA of 18.00. C.C. Sabathia has earned all F’s in three starts, allowing nine walks in 14 innings. Shaky starting pitching and unreliable bullpen could call for palinode of the Tribe being one of the best teams in American League.

Detroit 4-10 -10.4 units
Saying Detroit is off to a slow start, is like promoting “Leatherheads” for Oscar material. With this offense near the bottom in almost every category, they have posted a ZERO on four different occasions already. Maybe manager Jim Leyland stepping on a few throats or unlikely comeback this past Monday against Minnesota will turn like Tigers around, yet until they show any consistency besides losing, a tough bet either way.

No comments: