When a major league baseball team is hitting the ball and scoring runs, they look and act lively. When this same team goes into a slump, striking out and beating the ball into the ground for routine outs, they are more boring to watch than an episode of Fox’s “Back to You”. When a team can’t hit, they are often lifeless and just pain dull. However, when a lineup is sending missiles all over the diamond, it’s entertaining stuff, BUT are they a good wager?In 2008, home runs are down; scoring is off previous years, as many teams have better bullpens, with managers smarter in how to use them. That doesn’t mean over the course of a 162-game season; nine guys in the batting order won’t rip the cover off the ball for periods of time.
In this study, hot hitting was determined as three games with 10 or more hits in a trio of outings. This could relate to a series when the lumber was en fuego or just a short period when most everybody was seeing the ball well. What we wanted to know was how a team performed in the fourth game from a wagering perspective. Were they a good wager at home or on the road when hitting the ball well? How did these teams do when in the role of favorite or underdog in the next contest, plus a few other secondary numbers, with intriguing results.
One aspect that jumped out, had nothing to do with wagering, it had to do with specific team. The Cleveland Indians have a reputation as free swinging, hard-hitting team, not only have they not make a contribution to this study, but they have not even had consecutive outings of double digit hits this year, which is astounding. Even light-hitting San Diego has managed to have a set of games where they had two or three games in a row with 10 or more hits.
Teams favored after producing three contests of double digit base-knocks, have been below average at 11-13, losing 5.3 units of profit. It stands to reason, any team is going to have a difficult time just beating the ball, since they are bound to run into a number one starter from opposing team or just run out of good fortune.
The vast majority of teams that were favored played at home. Of the 19 measured contests, 16 wore the role of favorite, with mixed results. These clubs were only 9-10 and dropped three units for those backing them. This record did come as a bit of a shock, considering these teams were at home and had the benefit of batting last.
Moving ahead to underdogs, this collective group has not performed well, with 6-14 mark, dropping 6.3 units. This result was not confounding from handicapping point of view, since when a team swinging the bats this well and is not favored, their has to be a reason. A bad pitching matchup, a team that struggles with a certain type of pitcher or opponent, or just playing on the road, are all factors in this number.
If a bettor is looking for an outstanding wager in 2008, try this one.
Play Against a road team off three games with 10 or more hits. These clubs are lamentable 8-21, -12.75 units.
What this has shown is teams can win for a short duration swinging the bats well on the road, but more often than not, pitching will be the most important element to stringing together road wins.
Interestingly enough, though the sample is small, all three teams that fit this criterion that were listed as a “pick” lost next outing.
Interestingly enough, though the sample is small, all three teams that fit this criterion that were listed as a “pick” lost next outing.
Mentioned earlier, took a peak at two other areas that have proven to be profitable for baseball bettors. One was when a team was in the midst of a series, when striking the ball with authority. In this case, say a team had one or two games within a series totaling 10 hits or more, giving them three games in a row, as has been discussed. In the next contest against the same opponent, they are a mere 8-17, -10.95 units.
The last bit of winning wagering information has to do with teams that have extended hitting streaks, say four or more. While there is no way to determine when such a streak might end, when any major league teams falls back to single digit numbers, having put four or more consecutive games of 10+ hits, they are 6-11 -6.55 units. In this scenario, when a team is facing one of the top two pitchers from opposing club, this might be the right opportunity to bet against these teams slowing down and getting beat.
Utilizing the individual team pages at StatFox, can keep you right up to speed towards building baseball bankroll on a daily basis, Playing Against clubs that have swung the bats proficiently.
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