(3) San Antonio vs (1) L.A. Lakers Lakers -220 to win series “We’ve had our battles. We’ve had some great matchups,” Lakers star Kobe Bryant said. “It feels great to be back at that level, matching up with San Antonio.” Los Angeles, to the surprise of many, was playing outstanding basketball earlier in the season, but were believed to have taken a step backward when developing center Andruw Bynum went down. The Lakers front office, never afraid to make the right deal, saw the window of opportunity was opening now and likely for the next few seasons and swung a deal for Pau Gasol, which led to them earning the top seed in the West.
Los Angeles has been the most impressive team of the four remaining conference finalists, having played just 10 games in the postseason and are 7-2-1 against the spread. Having played last Friday, the Lakers are rested, with 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only their second game in seven days this season.
San Antonio showed their championship mettle at New Orleans in crucial game seven, winning 91-82 as four-point road underdogs, in a contest they frequently led by double digits. The Spurs got Tim Duncan started early and reigned three’s on the Hornets to secure victory. Because their plane had mechanical problems and a large convention in New Orleans, the Spurs were delayed in leaving for Los Angeles and didn’t have a practice on Tuesday. “We didn’t think practice was going to glean a whole lot of improvement, considering everything,” coach Greg Popovich said.
This means the Spurs are opening on the road again, where winning has not come as easy as in the past. San Antonio is 24-23, with paltry 17-30 ATS record including 2-4 SU and ATS in the playoffs. It would be reckless journalism to not point out the two most important games the Spurs have played as visitors in the postseason (Game 3 at Phoenix, Game 7 at New Orleans) were both wins. The Spurs Big Three will of course look to carry San Antonio. Tim Duncan will try to work Gasol over, with physical play. The real key for the Spurs is Tony Parker. He should have no problem breaking down Derek Fisher off the dribble and be able to get to the basket. The Lakers have plenty of tall timber in the paint, yet Parker has made his living scoring in the lane or will be able to dish the ball to open shooters. San Antonio is +180 underdog to win the series.
What made the Lakers this season was balance. Kobe Bryant had his lowest number of shots per points scored, which earned him his first MVP. Though Bynum had a more physical post presence, Gasol has a more varied game, with jump hooks and mid-range jump shots, to take defenders away from the lane. What the Lakers need Fisher to do is make jump shots, to offset what he’ll likely surrender on defense to Parker. Lamar Odom has to mentally involved from the opening tap of Game One, he is the wild card that could give Phil Jackson’s team a decided edge with his scoring ability, along with length and power. The Lakers fantastic four is draining 52.2 percent of shots in the postseason.
On last element to watch is the bench play. For the most part each team is dependent on its three-point shooters coming off the pine. A couple of games could swing one way of the other depending on which club has hotter shooters off the bench.
These teams split four games this season, each winning and covering at home, with margin of victory a decisive 13.3 PPG. Look for the Lakers to be able to match San Antonio in critical junctures where New Orleans could not with experience.
Doug's Take – Lakers -220 in seven
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