Betting the Big East Takes Guts

When the ACC raided the Big East, many thought this would signal the end of this league as a power and talk circulated that potentially this conference should be decertified as a BCS league. Naturally the conference members howled their disapproval and went out and did a little pilfering of their own in grabbing Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida from Conference-USA.

The first year turned out better than the Big East could have imagined, with conference champion, West Virginia pulling a stunning upset of Georgia 38-35 as six-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl in 2006.

Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese was absolutely thrilled about how the 2007 season played out. Barely one year removed from dismissal talk, this conference had three teams in the Top 10 in the country in November, with several key games to be played. Louisville ended up being the champion of the Big East and did the league proud with a 24-13 win over Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl.

Last season was not quite as exciting as the previous year, but all eyes were on West Virginia, who was in line to potentially play for the national championship with a win over rival Pittsburgh at home. The Mountaineers were monstrous 29-point favorites, yet fell to the Panthers 13-9, after quarterback Pat White went down with an injury. The whole Rich Rodriquez saga ensued, with him taking the Michigan job and few gave West Virginia a chance in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma as seven point underdogs. Instead, a proud group of Mountaineers was energized and they out-muscled and out-fought a Sooners team that didn’t know what hit them, winning 48-28 under then interim coach Bill Stewart.

Fast forward to today, after three weeks of the college football season, the Big East is 10-9 in non-conference play and get this 1-14 against the spread. (Really) What has happened in the course of a few seasons, at the pinnacle of the league’s success?

One of the most underrated and not frequently discussed aspects of conferences is the coaches in the league. Television commentators will question the judgment of a coach’s decision, yet will never go into the intricacies how good a coach one may actually be. This shouldn’t be surprising given the knowledge those working on public airwaves have to use these coaches to find out information and are seeking nuggets of information that can be used on a broadcast. Alienate the coach by criticizing him, essentially access is denied.

That is not a problem here, as we can dissect what is currently happening in the Big East. West Virginia, the reigning conference champs, had plenty of questions about the hiring of Bill Stewart to what has become a Top 10 program. Stewart is an affable man, a big smile and considered to be a smart assistant coach. With the bar having been raised under Rodriguez’s tenure, is he the right man to continue the structure? He’s put in a new offense that suits his preferences, yet as East Carolina game proved, the players are somewhat miscast and searching to understand what they need to do. With the Big East having only eight members, this leaves room for five non-conferences games. The ‘Teers have not been strong against these types of opponents and are 12-14-1 ATS since 2003.

Louisville has gone from a powerhouse to also-ran, with the departure of nomadic Bobby Petrino. The talent level has shrunk like a 100 percent cotton shirt thrown into a hot dryer and the natives are getting restless about coach Steve Kragthorpe spoiling what has been a very good thing for the Papa John Cardinal Stadium crowd. The Cards are 14-11 ATS in non-league games, but just 1-4 ATS the last two years.

Pittsburgh and Syracuse, two original members are saddled with two former NFL coaches, who are not getting the job done. Dave Wannstedt is 17-20 at Pitt with 16-18ATS record and has never shown a proclivity towards winning as a head coach anywhere. Syracuse fired Paul Pasqualoni for too many 6-6 to 8-4 seasons and hired Greg Robinson. Those numbers would be a welcome relief for the Orange fans with Robinson 7-31 and 15-23 ATS.

Connecticut’s Randy Edsall and Rutgers Greg Schiano both have proven to be solid coaches in building programs from nothing. Now they have reached a level of success, can either overcome limitations by the universities to take programs to championship levels? Coming into this 2008 campaign, both coaches had done well in the last five years in non-conference play (Rutgers 17-7-1 ATS and UConn 17-12-1 ATS), however most of those numbers were as undervalued underdogs.

Cincinnati has Brian Kelley in his second season. Kelly had unbelievable success at D-ll level with 118-35-2 record and is known for no-nonsense approach. Too early to predict what happens in the Queen City.

Presently the most stable program is South Florida, who didn’t have football 12 years ago. Jim Leavitt took the job in Tampa and quickly has ascended this program to alarmingly unique heights, starting from scratch. Most of his assistants have been there since day one, helping provide the continuity which has helped make this work. Even with this uprising, the Bulls are pedestrian 9-10 ATS in non-conference play in just over five seasons.

With the Big East on such shaky ground from coaching perspective, what should one expect once conference play starts? It would stand to reason underdogs of all sorts should do well given the state of affairs. Here is a chart explaining how these teams have performed as home favorites in the Big East as long as they have been part of the conference.

Big East ATS Records as Favorites
For Conference Play Last Five Years

Cincinnati 1-2 (3-years as member)
Connecticut 4-1 (4-years as member)
Louisville 6-4 (3-years as member)
Pittsburgh 6-3
Rutgers 2-5
South Florida 2-3 (3-years as member)
Syracuse 5-3
West Virginia 4-9-1

This conference has been a bookmaker’s dream with 30-30-1 ATS record on home favorites, with existing teams over the last five years. With the current coaching lineup, the numbers are actually more in favor of the road underdog than at first glance. Pittsburgh might be 6-3 ATS as a home Big East favorite, but all three losses have come with Wanny as coach. Basically the same is true of Syracuse, with their three spread losses coming with Robinson wearing the headset.

Watch closely who these Big East teams are matched against in non-conference play this week, trying to fully understand not only the opponent, but who is on the other sideline as coach. When league play starts, watch the spreads of home favorites, being able to take advantage of quality situations.