Home underdogs are well liked by supposedly bettors with more acumen; however they and everyone else might want to be careful which dogs have some bark. The NFL home teams catching points last were 1-4 ATS; the season to date record is 5-8 against the number. Teams like St. Louis and Detroit look like they will have a hard time all season no matter how many points they’ll be receiving and Cincinnati, Miami and Kansas City might not be that far behind.College football favorites took it on the chin again this week with 19-22-3 ATS record. The double digit home favorite actually did fairly well with 7-4-1 ATS record if they didn’t play a Sun Belt Conference team. This past week, home favorites of 10 or more against the Sun Belt were 1-3-1 against the number and are 6-6-1 ATS on the season. The spread record is not all that bad considering the SBC is 1-12 straight up in this role. Thank goodness USC won so decisively against Ohio State or it would have been an even blacker week for the Pac-10. As a group, the conference was 3-7 in non-conference play and 2-8 ATS the spread. Three favorites lost outright and Oregon was fortunate to survive at Purdue. The lack of defense is the likely answer with the Pac-10 being 15-5 Over in non-league games. Want more proof about the Pac-10’s struggles, what about 0-5 and 1-4 ATS against the Mountain West this season.
Do’s
If coach Gary Pinkel wants Chase Daniel to not just go to New York, but win the Heisman Trophy this season, he is doing everything possible for that to occur. Missouri leads the country in total offense at 597.3 yards a game and scoring at 57.6 points in three outings. The weapons are abundant with the likes of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman to name a few. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in all games since late 2006 and face an improving Buffalo team that can move the ball, but is slow defensively by Big 12 standards. Missouri goes to Nebraska the following week to open conference play, however catch the Huskers off big battle with Virginia Tech.
I picked TCU to win the Mountain West and nothing I have seen has changed my mind. Opponent hardly ever run on the Horned Frogs (1.7 YPC this season) and when they have a solid back seven like this year, they are efficient. Offensively, coach Gary Patterson (not the cartoonist) has moved beyond talented, but oft-injured and troubled running back Aaron Brown to options that are nearly as good. Quarterback Andy Dalton has improved tremendously in decision making and mentally is catching up to ability. TCU can name the score in alphabet contest against SMU and has covered only one of last five due to boredom. Excellent measuring stick next week when Frogs travel to Oklahoma, where they have won last two times (2005, 1996) they visited. TCU is 8-0 ATS on the receiving end of eight or more points on the road.
Oklahoma State has not and will not play an opponent that gives them a real challenge until Oct.10 at Missouri. Until then QB Zak Robinson will lead the number three rushing attack that is more diverse than the Feds AIG bailout deal. The Cowboys have big bodies up front that can help move the chains for the running backs. Okie State has enough speed on the perimeter, they can help T. Boone Pickens kick start his wind power idea. Don’t think Oklahoma State will discount Troy next week off a bye after being embarrassed by them on national TV 41-23 last season. Cowboys are 18-9-3 ATS as double digit home favorites.
Don’ts
If you are from the Eastern part of the United States and are a big fan of college football and think the Big East Conference rocks, proceed to next paragraph. The Big Least is 2-14 ATS this season, 2-14. That’s a worse record than the Milwaukee Brewers this month. Rutgers lost first two games at home by total of 49 points. At least Morgan State should stem that tide at the end of the month and only local bookies will take action on that one. The only enjoyment Syracuse fans will have this season is going to movie theatre and seeing former Orangemen Ernie Davis in, “The Express”. Don’t be surprised before the end of the season if coach Greg Robinson is in the express checkout line for departing coaches, with his recruits ranking 115th in total defense.
Was Hawaii really unbeaten and playing in the Sugar Bowl when the year began? Losing at Florida was a given and at Oregon State was not expected to be a luau, but 17 total points scored in those games! Things should improve once WAC play starts and more home games are played, nevertheless betting Hawaii, in what has to be a shock to the returning players from last season, would not in the words of the first president named Bush, “be prudent.”
UAB has already lost first three games and failed to cover any of them thanks to defense that is 119th or last in the country. (Western Kentucky is the 120th team in the FBS but is on unofficial purgatory from statistics standpoint until they become Sun Belt member next year) The Blazers have 17 returning starters back and it doesn’t look they that will help. This university gives very little support to the athletic department, with some of the most meager facilities in the country. UAB for years was a superb wager as a home dog or road dog, when they had a talented quarterback and receivers, which does not appear to be the case these days in Birmingham.
NFL Betting Thoughts
For those bettors that are emotionally involved in living and dying with every play on your bets, this past weekend was heaven and hell. The favored team trailed in six different early games, causing a great deal of consternation. If you have the NFL ticket, teams like Carolina, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cincinnati must have ate the same pregame meal the Cal Bears had the day before as they were as dull as a Ralph Nadar speech.
Three of the teams, the Colts, Panthers and Redskins came back to win and cover the number, spreading joy and misery at the same time. Watching the games, the sensation was exactly the same as the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the team you picked has nice halftime lead, only to be blown out in second half and fail to cover.
Arizona is in position to win the NFC West, thanks to 2-0 start covering both games. Seattle was the odds-on favorite, but has yet to win and resembles a mash unit with so many injuries. The Cardinals season will likely hinge on the five games they will play in the Eastern Time Zone, as they are 9-21 ATS on the road against non-division teams.
Most everyone assumed Jacksonville was ready to take the next step in progression towards the Super Bowl. A 0-2 start and staring at Indianapolis this week, places the Jaguars in peril, just to make the playoffs this season. With three offensive linemen injured in the middle of the line, David Garrard is under more duress and the ground game can’t get cranked up. No point on betting on Jacksonville right now.
Media and other thoughts –David Norrie and Terry Gannon are announcers for college football games on ESPN/ABC. Norrie is a former UCLA quarterback and had a brief career in the NFL. I’ve heard him call two games this season as an analyst and maybe I just never noticed before, but if you listen to one of his games, there are 14 all-conference players with NFL ability or sure-fire first day draft potential players on the field on any given play. These are college players and I have no problem talking them up, since they are still young adults. But to blatantly suggest the talent level is this high on the field of play undermines his credibility as an analyst.
Ohio State was decidedly whacked by USC, but the aftermath led me to rethink a position. In today’s world of sports, either you are champions or chumps. Ohio State is in the conversation for one of the three best programs of this decade and has one any many BSC titles as USC. No doubt they have stunk in their last three big games and deserve a certain amount of criticism, which is another blog post. But for those in the media to call the Buckeyes –LOSERS- is wrong.
Is Phil Mickelson a loser, being the second best golfer in the world, having to be born when Tiger Woods came around? What about those that work at Pepsi are they losers, having never passed up Coke for the top spot in soft drinks? What about the commission salesmen who are second or third in their companies for selling whatever, are they losers for not being the best?
Only one person, team or company can be at the top of the sheet. That doesn’t mean the others aren’t striving to be better, quite the contrary, maybe the circumstances don’t allow them to reach the top or sometimes they are just not as good. The last thing Ohio State players are is losers. Keep in mind, if New England played the New York Giants five times, who do you think would have won the majority of the time? On that day, the Giants were better, that’s all.
Do’s
If coach Gary Pinkel wants Chase Daniel to not just go to New York, but win the Heisman Trophy this season, he is doing everything possible for that to occur. Missouri leads the country in total offense at 597.3 yards a game and scoring at 57.6 points in three outings. The weapons are abundant with the likes of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman to name a few. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in all games since late 2006 and face an improving Buffalo team that can move the ball, but is slow defensively by Big 12 standards. Missouri goes to Nebraska the following week to open conference play, however catch the Huskers off big battle with Virginia Tech.
I picked TCU to win the Mountain West and nothing I have seen has changed my mind. Opponent hardly ever run on the Horned Frogs (1.7 YPC this season) and when they have a solid back seven like this year, they are efficient. Offensively, coach Gary Patterson (not the cartoonist) has moved beyond talented, but oft-injured and troubled running back Aaron Brown to options that are nearly as good. Quarterback Andy Dalton has improved tremendously in decision making and mentally is catching up to ability. TCU can name the score in alphabet contest against SMU and has covered only one of last five due to boredom. Excellent measuring stick next week when Frogs travel to Oklahoma, where they have won last two times (2005, 1996) they visited. TCU is 8-0 ATS on the receiving end of eight or more points on the road.
Oklahoma State has not and will not play an opponent that gives them a real challenge until Oct.10 at Missouri. Until then QB Zak Robinson will lead the number three rushing attack that is more diverse than the Feds AIG bailout deal. The Cowboys have big bodies up front that can help move the chains for the running backs. Okie State has enough speed on the perimeter, they can help T. Boone Pickens kick start his wind power idea. Don’t think Oklahoma State will discount Troy next week off a bye after being embarrassed by them on national TV 41-23 last season. Cowboys are 18-9-3 ATS as double digit home favorites.
Don’ts
If you are from the Eastern part of the United States and are a big fan of college football and think the Big East Conference rocks, proceed to next paragraph. The Big Least is 2-14 ATS this season, 2-14. That’s a worse record than the Milwaukee Brewers this month. Rutgers lost first two games at home by total of 49 points. At least Morgan State should stem that tide at the end of the month and only local bookies will take action on that one. The only enjoyment Syracuse fans will have this season is going to movie theatre and seeing former Orangemen Ernie Davis in, “The Express”. Don’t be surprised before the end of the season if coach Greg Robinson is in the express checkout line for departing coaches, with his recruits ranking 115th in total defense.
Was Hawaii really unbeaten and playing in the Sugar Bowl when the year began? Losing at Florida was a given and at Oregon State was not expected to be a luau, but 17 total points scored in those games! Things should improve once WAC play starts and more home games are played, nevertheless betting Hawaii, in what has to be a shock to the returning players from last season, would not in the words of the first president named Bush, “be prudent.”
UAB has already lost first three games and failed to cover any of them thanks to defense that is 119th or last in the country. (Western Kentucky is the 120th team in the FBS but is on unofficial purgatory from statistics standpoint until they become Sun Belt member next year) The Blazers have 17 returning starters back and it doesn’t look they that will help. This university gives very little support to the athletic department, with some of the most meager facilities in the country. UAB for years was a superb wager as a home dog or road dog, when they had a talented quarterback and receivers, which does not appear to be the case these days in Birmingham.
NFL Betting Thoughts
For those bettors that are emotionally involved in living and dying with every play on your bets, this past weekend was heaven and hell. The favored team trailed in six different early games, causing a great deal of consternation. If you have the NFL ticket, teams like Carolina, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cincinnati must have ate the same pregame meal the Cal Bears had the day before as they were as dull as a Ralph Nadar speech.
Three of the teams, the Colts, Panthers and Redskins came back to win and cover the number, spreading joy and misery at the same time. Watching the games, the sensation was exactly the same as the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the team you picked has nice halftime lead, only to be blown out in second half and fail to cover.
Arizona is in position to win the NFC West, thanks to 2-0 start covering both games. Seattle was the odds-on favorite, but has yet to win and resembles a mash unit with so many injuries. The Cardinals season will likely hinge on the five games they will play in the Eastern Time Zone, as they are 9-21 ATS on the road against non-division teams.
Most everyone assumed Jacksonville was ready to take the next step in progression towards the Super Bowl. A 0-2 start and staring at Indianapolis this week, places the Jaguars in peril, just to make the playoffs this season. With three offensive linemen injured in the middle of the line, David Garrard is under more duress and the ground game can’t get cranked up. No point on betting on Jacksonville right now.
Media and other thoughts –David Norrie and Terry Gannon are announcers for college football games on ESPN/ABC. Norrie is a former UCLA quarterback and had a brief career in the NFL. I’ve heard him call two games this season as an analyst and maybe I just never noticed before, but if you listen to one of his games, there are 14 all-conference players with NFL ability or sure-fire first day draft potential players on the field on any given play. These are college players and I have no problem talking them up, since they are still young adults. But to blatantly suggest the talent level is this high on the field of play undermines his credibility as an analyst.
Ohio State was decidedly whacked by USC, but the aftermath led me to rethink a position. In today’s world of sports, either you are champions or chumps. Ohio State is in the conversation for one of the three best programs of this decade and has one any many BSC titles as USC. No doubt they have stunk in their last three big games and deserve a certain amount of criticism, which is another blog post. But for those in the media to call the Buckeyes –LOSERS- is wrong.
Is Phil Mickelson a loser, being the second best golfer in the world, having to be born when Tiger Woods came around? What about those that work at Pepsi are they losers, having never passed up Coke for the top spot in soft drinks? What about the commission salesmen who are second or third in their companies for selling whatever, are they losers for not being the best?
Only one person, team or company can be at the top of the sheet. That doesn’t mean the others aren’t striving to be better, quite the contrary, maybe the circumstances don’t allow them to reach the top or sometimes they are just not as good. The last thing Ohio State players are is losers. Keep in mind, if New England played the New York Giants five times, who do you think would have won the majority of the time? On that day, the Giants were better, that’s all.
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