A look ahead in Rearview Mirror in Betting Football

Bettors across the country either benefited or were hung by what has become an annual right of college football the first few weeks of the season. Because of the limited amount of practice time coaches have with players and scholarship limitations, special teams are often neglected aspect of preseason practice. It’s not like the NFL where kinks can be worked out ahead of time. No matter what coaches’ hope, game speed is warp speed compared to what happens in practice. They worry a lot about this element of football to start the year.

Some coaches want to use best athletes or starters on special teams, but too often the players might not be focused, thinking about normal assignments. Hustling players with lesser ability might get caught up in wedge or lack lane responsibilities, allowing for kickoff or punt returns. UCLA had blocked punt to give them early momentum in upset of Tennessee. Missouri’s electric Jeremy Maclin had 99-yard kickoff return and 45-yard punt return before leaving with sprained ankle to help keep Illinois at bay. East Carolina was rewarded for out-playing Virginia Tech, with late blocked punt for the win. Colorado and Colorado State even had the rare back-to-back kickoff returns. This is one aspect that is difficult to account for from handicapping perspective early in the year, which has enormous impact on the outcome of games and wagers.

Do’s

It seems safe to say Mark Sanchez is very good quarterback and USC will continue to be a good wager as long as Pete Carroll is head coach (55-36 ATS, 60.4 percent). They gave scary good effort against Virginia, showing imagination, skill and domination. At one point in the second quarter, quarterback Pete Lalich threw a pass for completion and looked at teammate with raised eyebrow and half smile as if to say, “I did that against those guys, Wow.”

The only thing Clemson lacked in the preseason was a good enough offensive line with just one starter back. Turned out to be a WAY bigger deal than what most believed. The Tigers again showed they were the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz. If Nick Saban is a top 10 college coach (which he is), than Tommy Bowden is in the 90’s among his 120 FBS peers. Clemson might still end up being the best team in the ACC, but will anyone care? Those who had Clemson minus points are unlikely to return any time soon. Either playing against or passing on these toothless Tigers is the best bet.

Watching Virginia Tech, the thought crossed my mind, when was the last time I saw a team from Blacksburg that had less talent. East Carolina out-gained the Hokies 369-243 and held Frank Beamer’s team to 12 first downs. Skip Holtz’s team flying under the radar days are quickly coming to an end, especially if they can pull another upset this time at home against West Virginia. ECU is now special 27-11 ATS with Holtz as coach.

Missouri has Nevada and Buffalo in coming weeks, giving ample time to sort out defensive shortcomings. Chase Daniel makes every play and you’re almost surprised when he doesn’t complete pass. This offense is dynamic and will light up scoreboards all season. Covering spreads is doable for Missouri, if defense doesn’t play as soft as they did in the second half against Illinois.

Don’ts

Unless Illinois finds a running game against reasonable competition (Eastern Illinois does not quality as such this week), it could disappointment city for the Illini. Yes, Juice Williams did look better as passer, while still fair on touch routes. The Zookers are not going to be good bet if they become passing team. A 7-5 record appears to be fate, with .500 or less spread record unless running backs and defensive front seven improves.

The ACC caught plenty of deserved flak, but what about the Big East? Favored Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers all lost at home on consecutive days and they were considered middle to upper tier of the conference. Dave (I’ve never coached a game I couldn’t lose) Wannstedt’s Pitt club again crumbled at the first sign of adversity at home to Bowling Green, after building 14-0 lead. Three fumbles doomed the Panthers, being outscored 27-3 the rest of the way by the Falcons. Don’t assume the Wanny’s bounce back either, being 5-10 ATS off a loss. Did Bobby Petrino stop recruiting before he left Louisville or is replacement Steve Kragthorpe over his head coaching in BCS league? Not convinced Kentucky’s defense is as good as they looked, as Louisville looked clueless against the Cats. Rutgers had chances to grab lead from Fresno State at home, but miscues and misplays cost them dearly. What could once again be foreshadowing, the Scarlet Knights were punished for 206 yards rushing by the Bulldogs (allowed 200+ yards rushing five times in 2007). Rutgers has 10 days to prepare for North Carolina, nevertheless are only 8-10 ATS as home favorites of late.

Another assumption not to make is South Carolina is really coming on after white-washing nauseating N.C. State squad 34-0. After making junior Tommy Beecher his quarterback back in April, Coach Steve Spurrier was more patience than TLC’s “Jon and Kate Plus 8”, watching Beecher toss four picks. Former starter Chris Smelley came in and led three touchdown drives, earning a start this week. Unless Smelley turns into Tim Tebow the rest of the year, this game of musical chairs under center limits what bettors can expect from what should be very good defensive team.


Media- I continue to be amazed Bob Greise still has a job broadcasting football. He seldom offers any real insight and makes more mistakes than almost any announcer you listen to. This past Saturday, ABC called Keith Jackson to see what the retired legendary announcer was doing on the opening week of college football. Greise was involved in the conversation and asked Jackson, his former long time partner, how many times he said “Oh Nellie!” I almost spilled my beverage in shock. The entire world knows Jackson bellowed for decades, “Whoa Nellie!” and this ignoramus who sat next to him for years couldn’t get it right.

Todd Christensen used to be a very good tight end for the Oakland Raiders and was a top TV analyst for NBC and ESPN. Reports of his demise were often centered on his lack of preparedness and he is doing The Mountain West conference games on The Mountain Network. It was a pleasure to here his voice again, since he is eloquent speaker and has a command of the English language. Though still not always prepared, “#44 made a nice play on the ball” at least he doesn’t butcher the language of the United States. (It still is English right?)

Did anybody see the ESPN post-game wrapup Saturday night with Rece, Lou and Mark? They had this new feature called The Verdict. Honestly, it looked like a bad Saturday Night Live skit.