NFL Predictions and Player Talent Codes

I've have decided to present the best of both worlds, reviewing a number of NFL annuals on bookstore shelves and determining how these magazines feel about the upcoming football season. In addition, I've performed homework and went through NFL scouting material to see how each starting player was graded was based on 2007 performance. In the NFL, the more talent you have the better chances of winning, plain and simple. The trusted coding system is “Blue” for elite players per position, “Red” for quality players and “Purple” for above average, just not game changers. The projected records are an average of what the preseason magazines predicted and we’ll give the breakdown of talent on offense and defense of each team by color system, indicating talent levels of 22 starters for all 32 teams.


AFC East (Projected record)
1)New England 13-3 – (Offense – 2-Blue, 7- Red / Defense – 1-B, 4-R, 2-P)
2)Buffalo 8-8 – (Off.- 1-B, 4-R / Def.-3-R, 2-P)
3)New York Jets 8-8 (Off.-1-B, 7-R / Def.-5-R, 1-P)
4)Miami 3-13 (Off.- 2-R, 1-P / Def.- 2-R, 2-P)

Analysis- The New England Patriots have a sizable talent difference over their division competitors. The prognostications were placed well before the Brett Favre deal was even thought about, meaning the New York Jets would likely now have better record, as the “blue” player they picked up was number 4. The scouts in general were already impressed with the talent on hand for the Flyboys and this is further enhanced with Favre under center. Buffalo previously had more calls for second place finish, as they utilize the team concept without exceptional ability on both sides of the ball. It should be noted the Bills return players like LB Paul Posluszny and FS Ko Simpson, who were not rated due to early season injuries in 2007. Look for Miami to play tougher with Bill Parcells crafting team in his image, nevertheless, talent lacking on roster.

AFC North
1)Pittsburgh 11-5 -(Off.-1-B, 5-R, 1-P / Def.- 6-R, 2-P)
2)Cleveland 10-6 – (Off.- 2-B, 4-R, 2-P / Def- 4-R, 2-P)
3)Cincinnati 9-7 -(Off.-2-B, 4-R, 2-P / Def.- 2-R, 3-P)
4)Baltimore 6-10 -(Off.- 3-R, 2-P / Def.-2-B, 6-R, 2-P)

Analysis –This was one of the more intriguing divisions to study for many reasons. Pittsburgh had the most number one votes, in spite of what looks to be an absolutely killer schedule for 2008. This is often underrated aspect of professional football and definitely plays a factor into the outcome of the season. The Steelers have the best balance of talent in the division on both sides of the ball and deserve to be ranked first for this reason. Cleveland and Cincinnati appear to have the weapons to compete at least offensively with Pittsburgh, with each coming up short on the defensive side of the ball. The Browns situation is something to watch, as they were picked first in the AFC North as often as they were picked to finish third. Only Baltimore has the defensive players to get after all three of these teams, but they come woefully short in competing offensively, whether Kyle Boller or Troy Smith is the starter at quarterback.

AFC South
1)Indianapolis 12-4 -(Off.-3-B, 5-R, 1-P / Def.-2-B, 5-R, 1-P)
2)Jacksonville 11-5- (Off.- 6-R, 1-P / Def.-5-R, 2-P)
3)Tennessee 6-10- (Off.-4-R, 1-P / Def.-1-B, 3-R, 1-P)
4)Houston 6-10 - (Off.-1-B, 3-R, 2-P / Def.-2-B,1-R, 2-P)

Analysis- The only mystery in this division before the season starts is who finishes last. Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher earns high marks in working a team that seemingly overachieves every year, manufacturing wins. Despite Vince Young’s regression in second season, the Titans still made the playoffs, with most feeling the talent level is too thin to keep living on the edge. Houston is rising in esteem by most experts, unfortunately they are in the NFL’s toughest division from last year and need to make their own breaks to crawl over .500 for the first time and possibly learn from Tennessee about sneaking into postseason. Indianapolis and Jacksonville are among the best teams in the AFC and in the scouts eyes and are separated by the fact the Colts have more top level performers than Jacksonville does.

AFC West
1)San Diego13-3-(Off.-2-B, 7-R / Def.-2-B, 5-R, 1-P)
2)Denver 9-7 -(Off.-5-R, 1-P / Def.-4-R, 1-P)
3)Oakland 6-10 -(Off.-3-R, 2-P / Def.-1-B, 6-R, 1-P)
4)Kansas City 4-12 -(Off.-2-B, 1-R, 2-P / Def.-3-R, 2-P)

Analysis- San Diego is believed to have a stroll through the AFC West, with two teams in rebuilding mode and the other trying to reload on the run. The Chargers and Colts each have 17 players that grade out above average or better among starters, which helps makes them favorites in division races. Comparing the talents of Denver and Oakland, without knowing the recent history of these two teams, it would seem they should be fairly competitive. What doesn’t show up is organizational structure, with the Broncos fiscally sound and well run and the Raiders still thinking leisure suits are hip. Kansas City gave in to the inevitable; realizing treading water will only prevent you from drowning for so long. Instead, they made commitment to the future and will take their lumps in 2008, looking towards tomorrow.

NFC East
1)Dallas 13-3 -(Off.-5-B, 3-R, 2-P / Def.-2-B, 4-R, 1-P)
2)New York Giants 12-4 -(Off.-6-R, 1-P/ Def.-1-B, 4-R, 3-P)
3)Philadelphia 7-9 -(Off.-2-B, 4-R, 1-P / Def.-1-B, 4-R, 1-P)
4)Washington 4-12- (Off.-7-R, 1-P / Def.-1-B, 4-R, 1-P)

Analysis- No team in football is believed to have more top level talent than the Dallas Cowboys, with seven “blue” players among its 22 starters. Dallas has also added Adam (formerly Pacman) Jones and he should bring another top level performer to the Cowboys stable of talent. Owner Jerry Jones thinks his squad has what it needs to land in Tampa in early February. The defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants did not do it with mirrors as some would have you believe. This is a solid football team, not receiving much respect (2006 St. Louis Cardinals come to mind), who can still play under the radar in certain situations. Now they need to show if they can play as well all season as they did at the end of last year. Prognosticators feel this is about the last hurrah for Philadelphia to show they can compete with the NFC elite and most experts are not convinced they will. Though excitement abounds in Washington with Jim Zorn as coach, this is a rugged division and this marginally talented squad is starting over with new coach and has enough veterans on the back side of careers.

NFC North
1)Green Bay 10-6 -(Off.-6-R, 2-P / Def.-1-B, 6-R, 3-P)
2)Minnesota 10-6-(Off.-1-B, 4-R, 1-P / Def.-3-B, 3-R, 1-P)
3)Chicago 7-9 -(Off.-3-R, 2-P / Def.-2-B, 3-R, 2-P)
4)Detroit 5-11-(Off.-2-R, 3-P / Def.-4-R, 1-P)

Analysis- What team were scouts most impressed with from an overall talent perspective in 2007? None other than the Green Bay Packers, who registered the most players to have above average talent at 18, even with number 4 no longer in the picture. With the NFL so heavily predicated on quarterback play, experts see the Packers and Minnesota duking it out to be division champs. The Vikings do have more star power and arguably have the best offensive and defensive lines in the NFL. Kyle Orton was named the Bears starting quarterback and the City of Broad Shoulders yawned. No breathtaking offensive talent means the defense has to return to 2006 form for Da Bears to compete. Detroit has rolled out new more new models during the Matt Millen era than General Motors, with each ending up looking like a Ford Pinto. To understand what a terrible job Millen has done, look at the talent level through the scout’s eyes for a team that has consistently picked players at the front end of the draft this decade.

NFC South
1)New Orleans 11-5-(Off.-1-B, 6-R, 1-P / Def.-5-R, 1-P)
2)Carolina 9-7-(Off.-1-B, 2-R, 2-P / Def.-5-R, 1-P)
3)Tampa Bay 7-9-(Off.-4-R, 2-P / Def.- 6-R, 3-P)
4)Atlanta 2-14-(Off.-1B, 3-R, 1-P / Def.-3-R, 2-P)

Analysis- New Orleans found out how challenging it is to maintain excellence when rising from the ashes to division champs. In 2007, the entire organization appeared to believe they just had to play and everything else would come together. Most believe the Saints learned their lesson and should rebound to be back atop the NFC South. Carolina has been through back-to-back injury plagued years and wants to believe they are ready to set sail for division crown again. This is a divided roster of talent, a grouping of underachievers and a large contingent of just average players. Tampa Bay can make a solid case of repeating as South champions, with most not believing they can not win with an oft-injured 38-year-old quarterback Jeff Garcia, despite a quickly rebuilt defense, loaded with ability. Atlanta can only go up, even if record and talent could say otherwise after the year they were Vick-ed.

NFL West
1)Seattle 11-5 -(Off.-2-B, 5-R, 1-P / Def.- 3-B, 3-R, 1-P)
2)Arizona 8-8-(Off.- 4-R, 1-P / Def.-2-R, 1-P)
3)St. Louis 5-11-(Off.-1-B, 3-R, 1-P / Def.- 4-R, 2-P)
4)San Francisco 5-11-(Off.-3-R, 1-P / Def.- 1B, 3-R, 1-P)

Analysis- Is Seattle really still a NFC Super Bowl contender or are they a by-product of playing in what might be the worst division in the NFL? Talent evaluators like them basically as much as the Giants, with five notable “blue” chippers. Arizona is the best of a bad lot, with offensive weapons and questionable defense. St. Louis and San Francisco have weak front offices in terms of evaluating college and pro talent and both head coaches Scott Linehan and Mike Nolan, might be joining lame duck coach Mike Holmgren after the season as former NFL generals who used to run teams.