For college football bettors who prefer to play favorites, this past week should have been a very good week for you, as the chalk had its best week since the opening of the season with 32-20 ATS mark. This led to another dismal week for home underdogs who were 8-12 ATS, making the three week total a stock market-like 19-37-3 against the spread. If you’re looking for value, some of the very best is in the SEC. Southeastern Conference road teams are fairly decent 13-12, but shine like a bright red Mustang convertible with 17-5-2 ATS record.After a fantastic start, Bret Bielema has a half-barrel size problem on his hands at Wisconsin. After being given they keys to the Badgers program by his predecessor and boss Barry Alvarez, Bielema started 17-1 and 10-5-1 ATS. Since losing at Illinois last season, Wisconsin is 7-8 and 5-10 against the spread. Two things worth noting about this, since Bielema was hand-picked all but the senior class are his recruits, leaving one to ponder about the direction of this program. After the Badgers fell behind 28-9 to Iowa, it was evident the players had quit, realizing a fourth straight loss was coming. That might be the largest indictment against Bielema and they are on play against list until further notice.
The exact opposite situation is on the UCLA campus. Coach Rick Neuheisel inherited a team lacking talent and had been stripped dramatically by injuries. The Tennessee win was an exciting way to start, however being blasted by BYU 59-0 and Arizona 31-10 at home, brought home the harsh realities about the true talent of this squad. The former Bruin quarterback was not going to let this team feel sorry for itself. He’s pushed, prodded, scolded and praised this team and they hung with more talented Fresno State and Oregon teams and somehow pulled out a last seconds win against Stanford. The win versus Stanford was the 19th time in Slick Rick’s coaching career, his team had come from behind to win in the fourth quarter. Including the Washington State victory, this Wizard of Westwood has his team on a four-game cover streak.
Few people have a lower opinion of Dave Wannstedt as a coach than I do. It has amazed me how often this guy lands on his feet, in spite of being nothing but a very good defensive coordinator. Now in his fourth season at his alma mater Pittsburgh, he had done nothing to endure himself with the alumni with a 16-19 and 16-16 ATS record coming into the season. A 27-17 home opening loss to Bowling Green as 13.5-point favorites left many wondering if a buyout of Wanny’s contract was in order. Yet like a Robert Downey Jr. career resurrection, coach Wannstedt’s Panthers have won five in a row, the last two on the road at South Florida and Navy. Pitt is playing much like the coach himself, tough and physical. In an extremely weak Big East Conference, Pittsburgh is the favorite, as long as they don’t stumble. I know as soon as I pull out a dime to wager on Pitt they will lose; however it might make more sense for others to consider this team.
Really looking forward to Oklahoma State – Texas matchup. Colt McCoy and the Longhorns are playing with incredible confidence and the defense is really coming along. Oklahoma State went through the pastry section in the first part of their season, yet the win at Missouri was over-powering and many handicappers had Baylor with the points expecting Cowboys letdown. Okie State gave a workman-like effort in beating the Bears 34-6, covering the spread handily. Kudos to coach Mike Gundy and his defensive coordinator, moving DE Derek Burton inside and setting up his other defensive ends and blitzing linebackers to create more pressure on the quarterback. This week at Austin will show how far they have come, having lost 10 in a row at Austin, with last win coming in 1944.
Quick notes- Arizona could be the last team to challenge USC and are home in Tucson this week. Not saying this will happen, but if Oregon State wins out, they are Pac-10 champs.
If you can get a halftime wager on Alabama you might want to. The Crimson Tide has outscored the last three opponents by 69-3 in the first 30 minutes. In the second half, Bama has been outscored 61-13, signs of a talented, but young team.
Of the four unbeaten non-BCS teams, Utah, Boise State, Ball State and Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane have the best shot, in my opinion, with non-conference tilt at Arkansas likely deciding their fate.
NFL Betting Thoughts
Watch the New England Patriots this week when they host St. Louis, as the Monday night winners are on a tear. Thus far in 2008 they are 7-0 with a 5-2 ATS record. Have you heard about West Coast teams going East and having to play games with their body clock starting at 10:00 am Pacific, if you haven’t, its time to pay attention. The three hour time difference has left these teams 0-8 and 1-7 ATS. Will Oakland and Arizona be the next victim’s this week? All teams traveling two time zones are 7-14 against the spread this season.
Teams that have scored 40 or more points are 4-1 ATS in last five. We’ll have to wait a week on how Minnesota and Chicago perform, however the Patriots are up this week. Last week it was mentioned here about Yards Per Point and how well the teams in the bottom five positions are performing this season, contrary to the last three years. Last week they were 3-2 and raised season record to 12-5 ATS. This week Miami, Kansas City and Washington all fit, with Baltimore and Oakland canceling themselves out by playing one another.
I’ve talked about coaches here this year and two currently are impacting their teams. It’s rather apparent the St. Louis Rams players had seen the handwriting on Scott Linehan and were not responding. Reports were Linehan lost control of the situation and was expecting to be fired after 0-3 start. In comes assistant Jim Haslett, who no doubt wants to be a head coach in the NFL again and immediately presents a different attitude (more positive) and expects his players to play with more passion. All the Rams do is pick off two NFC East teams and if they could pull another upset in New England and Arizona losses in Carolina, St. Louis would be just a game behind in the NFC West, Wow.
Wade Phillips by all accounts is a nice man, hard-working and a great assistant coach. Last season he was breath of fresh air to a roster of extremely talented players who felt they didn’t need the whip cracked all the time like Bill Parcells did. Phillips expects the players to practice diligently and play hard on Sunday’s. It worked last year for three quarters of the season. But since beating Green Bay on a Thursday night in late November, the Cowboys are 6-6 and 2-10 ATS, including the Giants playoff loss. The atmosphere surrounding Jerry Jones team keeps them in the headlines; however it is a case of too many chiefs and not even indians. Phillips is no longer the right man to turn Dallas around, unless the players take complete ownership.
The Cleveland Browns have a decision to make in the next few weeks. Quarterback Derek Anderson has returned to being the same player he was at Oregon State and the one who couldn’t beat out Charley Frye in training camp last season. Anderson is like many of the rides at the relatively close Cedar Point Amusement Park, up and down, thrilling and will make you sick to you stomach. GM Phil Savage will have to make a decision soon, which will determine the fate of the franchise for the next several years, hook up the train with Anderson or Brady Quinn?
Is their a better example in the NFL of the old phrase “run the ball, stop the run” than the Indianapolis Colts? New Orleans could be play against team, since they survived without their top receivers, being able to utilize a much improved Reggie Bush. Carolina showed the world, how to stop Drew Brees by playing more press coverage on Saints receivers and New Orleans had no quick fix alternatives after Bush went down, which could keep him out a month.
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