In terms of coaching matchups, it hardly gets any better than this in the NFL with Mike Shanahan versus Bill Belichick. The sideline chess game may be just as good as the one on the field. Both head coaches could be poster boys for “No Guts, No Glory,” especially Shanahan, who went for two points and the win against San Diego in Week 2.Belichick’s probably the only other coach with enough confidence in his team, and desire to drop the hammer on an opponent. And you can bet he’ll be ready to go for broke given Shanahan’s current three-game winning streak in the series and Denver 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in New England.
The Pats return home after splitting a West Coast trip to San Francisco and San Diego. Despite the loss of Tom Brady, New England is 3-2 (2-3 ATS) after a 30-10 loss against the Chargers last Sunday night. New England wasn’t going to beat San Diego last week; however that game illustrated Matt Cassel’s issues.
Besides taking far too many sacks (19), Cassel’s is slow to react to what is placed in front of him on the football field. Speaking to a person who watches tape on every NFL game, Cassel’s lacks presence in the pocket and finding open receivers at this level of football. He expressed it was clear, despite physical talent, his not starting a football game since high school limits the scope of what he is capable of, thus the vertical passing game of the Patriots is strictly hit or miss. He will be helped playing at Gillette Stadium where New England is 37-21 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
He takes aim at a Denver defense that continues to sputter, being ranked 30th no matter where it plays. The Broncos fell for the second time in three weeks, losing at home to Jacksonville, 24-17, and the defense was gored for 416 yards, including 276 yards through the air by David Garrard.
The Pats can still score in bunches and from anywhere—just ask the 49ers, who watched Randy Moss burn the secondary for a 66-yard touchdown. What New England desperately needs to improve is a running game split amongst three players (Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan and Laurence Maroney), none of whom have distinguished themselves. For the bruising—and often bruised—Maroney and shifty Morris at least Denver’s defense, which allows an average of 137.5 yards per game, offers an opportunity to get on the right track. They will seek to get back to normal off of loss at San Diego, which was first spread loss in October in three seasons.
Jay Cutler looked like the second coming of John Elway as the Broncos averaged 38 points in their first three games. Since then an inexplicable loss to Kansas City, a defensive squeaker against the Bucs and a dull effort against Jacksonville. The Broncos have serious problems on defense against the run and pass and scoring 17.3 points a game like they have in the last three outings won’t mask them.
Bookmaker.com has seen New England hold steady as a three-point favorite, with the total having rose to 48 points. What’s intriguing about the upward movement of the total is Denver is 4-12 ATS when both teams score 20 or more points and New England is 43-18 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points.
Denver covers if they confuse Cassel and make him uncomfortable. Stop the run on the early downs against the Patriots and force Cassel to make plays down the field. Cutler needs to be smarter with the football, as they have seven turnovers in two losses. Cutler needs to be patient, since the New England defense is beatable. If the Broncos maximize efficiency, they move to 15-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games
New England covers by finding Randy Moss. Last week Moss started to revert to Oakland day’s, looking disinterested, get him the ball. Belichick has to change up defense to get more pressure, as defensive backs are below average and can be beaten on middle to deep patterns when the quarterback has time to throw. The offensive line has to block well and control the game. With the total at present figure, it favors the Pats, with Denver disastrous 0-11 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last two seasons.
Our Monday night system looks to play against any away underdog that has failed to cover its last two games. This system is 19-8 ATS, 70.3 percent.
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