First place in the AFC East is up for grabs Thursday night when the New York Jets and New England Patriots renew one of the emerging rivalries in the NFL. Both teams are 6-3 and fans and sports bettors have more storylines to follow than As the World Turns. New England would have what amounts to a two-game lead in the tiebreaker, giving them the edge with six games left. New York would have a lesser advantage, nevertheless, both teams have similar schedules the rest of the way and the Jets have one more home game than the Patriots.The Jets(5-4 ATS) had a historic first half against St. Louis last week, scoring on each of their seven possessions to build a 40-point lead, en route to a 47-3 victory. Their defense forced four turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and kicker Jay Feely hit field goals of 22, 49, 46 and 55 yards. Feely had 17 points a week after getting 14 in a win at Buffalo, and running back Thomas Jones totaled 149 yards and scored three times.
With most of their starters rested in the fourth quarter, the Jets shouldn’t have any issues dealing with the short work week. Perhaps it’ll help them snap a longstanding funk against New England, which has captured 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a 2006 playoff game and a 19-10 decision in Week 2 of this season. New York is 11-2 ATS as road underdog off a double digit cover against and opponent who is won and covered last week.
Coach Eric Mangini has become obsessed with wanting to beat his former mentor. Since signing with the Jets, Bill Belichick turned his back on Mangini, basically disregarding him as a person for going to division foe. Mangini was taken aback by most insiders and has made it his personal mission to win the AFC East and stick it to his former boss. Since beating the Patriots in New England 17-14 two seasons ago, Mangini and the Flyboys have lost four in a row, getting no closer than nine points. New York is 1-7 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game.
The Patriots (5-4 ATS) come off an impressive 20-10 victory over the free-falling Bills. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who began the season fourth on the depth chart, had 105 yards and one touchdown as head coach Belichick’s offense continues to find a suitable ball carrier. Quarterback Matt Cassel (23 of 34, 234 yards) ran an efficient offense that soaked up more than 37 minutes of clock, and the defense held Buffalo without a touchdown until inside of two minutes. That win raised the Pats record to 11-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread.
The Cassel vs. Brett Favre matchup is good stuff. This is why the Jets acquired Favre for games just like this. They want his veteran leadership and savvy to make it through the rough spots. Favre however, has regressed in terms of playing under control this season with 12 interceptions. The New England coaching staff has learned Cassel is much more effective throwing the short ball and has adjusted their offense to match his talents, getting the ball to Wes Welker and Randy Moss more efficiently. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS off a win and cover, having gone Under the total two games in a row and playing division opponent.
Bookmaker.com has New England as three-point favorite with total of 41.5. The host team is just 2-16 ATS in these meetings.
New England is facing a much more confident Jones and Brett Favre than it did Sept. 14. Jones has seven touchdowns in the last five games, and Favre has hit on 33 of his last 47 pass attempts with only one interception. New York has the No. 5 rushing defense in the NFL (76.4 yards per game), thanks to Kris Jenkins being stout in the middle of the 3-4 defense and withstanding constant double-teams at the point of attack. The Patriots have won recently with massive time-of-possession advantages that won't be possible against the Jets if they can't run. The Jets have covered five of their last seven road games.
The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 tilts following a win. They will need to confuse Favre into mistakes and have Cassel continue to manage the game and provide ball protection.
The NFL Network will once again broadcast this Thursday night showcase starting at 8:15 Eastern.
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