Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting College Football

One of the great things about being a college football sports bettor, you can live in the present and look towards the future. This week the BCS talk is running rampant, borderline Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”, with too many angry types speculating about everything that is wrong with the BCS system. It is far from a perfect system, but the drama is incredible.

Think about how watered-down the Texas Tech at Oklahoma upcoming game would be if both teams already new they were in an eight-team postseason. The Penn State loss at Iowa, no problem guys, shake it off, beat Michigan State and we’re still playing for the national championship. This is do-or-die drama, especially late in the season; it could hardly be more fun.

Those of us who wager on college football can join in on these borderline unhealthy discussions with more knowledge than your average fan, since we cover the entire scope of college football. We might have our favorite teams or know more about a certain conference depending on our proximity; however we are much more informed, even as our personal opinions differ. Just like the coach preaches, we play’em one week at a time and let somebody else worry about what might happen.

Texas Tech was extremely impressive against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys needed two more players on defense to either create a pass rush to stop quarterback Graham Harrell or more help in the secondary. After awhile it was like watching Gary Busey on Celebrity Rehab, you just felt sorry for Okie State. What is most impressive is the play the Red Raiders are getting on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Harrell could have worn a dress suit and gone out to eat after the game, with nary a wrinkle with the protection he received. Though the defense is unheralded, they make enough of a mess to spoil the other team’s offensive flow. In a league where the offense overflows more than Pamela Anderson, the best way to measure the Texas Tech defense is points allowed in their last three games.

Kansas averages 34.5 PPG – scored 21 vs Texas Tech
Texas averages 44.3 PPG – scored 33 vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State averages 42.8 PPG – scored 20 vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are the first team since Oklahoma in 1984 to defeat a number one team and beat a Top 10 club the following week.

You think the Rose Bowl and wagering outlets were worried about Ohio State- USC rematch; they might have a bigger conundrum on their hands. If Penn State and Oregon State win out, they are set for rematch in Pasadena from Sept.6, when the Nittany Lions pulverized the Beavers 45-14 in Happy Valley. You can bet the West Coast crowd is praying Oregon State loses, setting up JoPa against Pete Carroll. Have to hand it to coach Mike Riley and Oregon State as they are peeking again late in the season. As noted in the Platinum Sheet, they have won a won a minimum of three of last five games of the regular season all but once in the last nine seasons.

For the first time ever, the Mid-American Conference beat their Midwestern heavyweight neighbor four times. Not really sure if that points to the MAC being improved in 2008 or that the Big 10 (11) is brutal. Here’s one other little known fact this season about these two conferences, the MAC was 4-9 straight up, yet covered 10 of 13 meetings. HUMMMM

Nice to see Charley Weis of Notre Dame come to the rescue of suddenly inept offense after being shutout by Boston College 17-0. That’s the second posted zero in last 14 games for the offensive genius. He made it clear that he had nothing to do with being blanked directly and will try to resurrect the offense against defensive powerhouses Navy and Syracuse. His true genius will be shown when his team finishes the season at USC. I never bought into this 9-3 or 10-2 business Beano Cook or others were selling, thinking 7-5 seemed about right. Until Weis can start bringing in offensive and defensive linemen that have ability and bad intentions, there won’t be much fight in the Irish.

This past week was a bad week to be a big home favorite or a home team catching points. Double digit home chalk was 5-9-2 against the spread last week, making them 23-39-3 ATS the last month. After posting positive numbers a week ago, home underdogs returned to sorry ways with 5-11 ATS figure. They are 32-58-3 ATS the last five weeks.

Quick notes- Do you think the Oklahoma Sooners offense is peaking? In their last three games they have averaged 47.3 points per game, in the first half!

If you think the Big 12 South is a confusing mess, try the ACC. Every team in the conference has two losses, meaning tie-breakers deluxe are a possibility to determine who plays in the conference championship game. Not surprisingly with this kind of balance, ACC home teams are 18-13 and 15-16 ATS. Also, home underdogs at 5-2 against the spread should make perfect sense this season.

Most preseason magazines had Iowa in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. Based on their schedule and defense, believed they would finish fourth in the conference. Coach Kirk Ferentz has his team positioned to finish strong after Penn State upset and their four losses have been by a total of 12 points. The Hawkeyes are younger, which could mean even better days ahead for the honest and glib Ferentz.

In the SEC, Florida is showing they just might be not only the best team in the conference, but in the country the way they are playing. On the other hard, Tennessee coaches are to blame, but the Volunteers players should embarrassed for how they played in losing to Wyoming 13-7 as 27-point home favorites. Departing Phil Fulmer deserves to be criticized for letting program slip, but the guys in the orange jerseys are culpable also for not beating a team that has been outscored by the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference 161-13.

The Texas A&M defense is slower than an express checkout lane as the grocery store.

West Virginia is stuck with Bill Stewart as coach and the program will sink. My guess is the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Big East conflict on Nov.22 will decide who wins the BCS berth, other games not withstanding.