Do the Jaguars Have Bite as a Home Underdog?

A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9 after beating Green Bay. Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.

Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium. After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites. Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts. Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.

Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.

For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week. Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.

Bookmaker.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.

Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.