This year’s Super Bowl might not have all the snazzy names from a year ago New England and the New York Giants provided, but this matchup have more intriguing stories than Pittsburgh has rivers and just slightly less restaurants and nightclubs Scottsdale has to visit. Start with Arizona having not won a playoff since 1947, twice removed from the south side of Chicago to present location. While Cardinals and players have been spouting nobody believed in them, what was the basis of any history to do so? Speaking of history, Pittsburgh’s NFL history before drafting Mean Joe Greene and Terry Bradshaw in 1969 and 1970 respectively was of similar failure to the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was on the ground floor of the NFL’s emergence in 1933 and made the post season once before 1972 (ironically 1947) when their run as on the most decorated AFC champion began.Other storylines include Bill Cowher stepping down as coach and Arizona’s head man Ken Whisenhunt, a Steelers assistant and Russ Grimm (formerly Pittsburgh assistant, now with the Cardinals) were finalists for the job before the Pittsburgh organization went out an hired a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.
Between now and the start of the game you will have more useless knowledge about players, coaches and teams in the Big Game than a youngster has about each of the Jonas Brothers, nonetheless we’ll try a different approach.
Arizona Running Game vs Pittsburgh Front Seven
After beating a sickly St. Louis squad 34-13 on Nov.2, running the 33 times for 177 yards, Arizona won the NFC West a couple weeks later and lost their way in the process. Over the next seven contests, the Redbirds averaged 16 carries per game. Granted, in several games they fell behind early and were forced to throw the ball to try to score more quickly and abandoned the run. Nevertheless, every game started a 0-0 and even when Arizona trailed 7-0 or even 14-0 in some of those losses, they were all too happy to chuck the run and pass the ball three times for too frequent three and outs. Though the season finale could hardly be described as an awakening, the reinsertion of a fresh and frustrated Edgerrin James yielded a 100+ yard rushing game for the first time in eight tries and set the table for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to rethink playoff strategy. Since their first offensive possession of the postseason, it is obvious “The Edge” is back and the offensive line has improved dramatically, relishing the challenge. Most of the running plays are now one cut and go and though the Arizona linemen are not dominating, there are holes to run thru. One aspect not discussed about the Cards linemen and how they have improved, not one starter has missed a game, which led to chemistry and communication improvements.
The Steelers led the league in total defense and points allowed and were second against the run in surrendering 3.3 yards per carry. The setup is simple, the linemen clog gaps and the linebackers swoop in and make tackles. If Pittsburgh can make Arizona one-dimensional, they can dictate the tempo and come after Kurt Warner with less fear of having to worry about running game. This will be as important an issue as any in the Super Bowl.
Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3
Kurt Warner vs Pittsburgh Secondary
It’s not often a quarterback goes seven years between Super Bowl assignments (John Elway went eight), but Kurt Warner has rewarded the coaches faith in him naming him starter in August. Though the Hall of Fame talk seems premature, no doubting the wisdom and toughness Warner has acquired over what has become a long career. Like most veteran signal callers, Warner has seen it all. As I had mentioned several times this season, given time, the Northern Iowa product is still a top five quarterback. He read every Philadelphia blitz correctly and threw the ball with precision into vacated area. Look for Arizona to go to third receiver Steve Breaston more in this game, since the Pitt defenders beyond Ike Taylor are not great individual defenders. Running back Tim Hightower can also be highly effective for Warner, when they push the Steelers secondary deep with their receivers and force Troy Polamalu into coverage, instead of hanging around the line of scrimmage. How Pittsburgh thwarts the Cardinals passing game is with pressure. Television types are talking about how Warner will pick apart Steelers if they blitz too much, of course the very same talking heads said the Philly blitzes would shutdown Cards passing game. Linebacker James Harrison, DE Brett Keisel and LB Lamar Woodley hold the key. Harrison and Keisel are on the back side of Warner and get to him with speed and quickness and knock the ball loose. Woodley is important as he brings in-the-face pressure on Warner and the Steelers defense is the absolute best in having defenders in passing lanes. Expect DC Dick LeBeau to stay in base defense early to see if rushers can get to Warner and turn up the heat as needed.
Spread Differential - None
Pittsburgh Running Game vs Arizona Front Seven
The second most important part of the Super Bowl will be how these two units matchup. After Minnesota and New England combined to rush for 422 yards against Arizona, defensive coordinator Clancy Pendegrast simplified schemes in front, having more gap control. This put players like Darnell Dockett in better positions to make plays at the line of scrimmage and get better penetration on wide plays to his side. The Pittsburgh offensive line is nothing special, just above average. They are helped tremendously by having a healthy Willie Parker, who doesn’t need much of a hole and can out-run defenders if he can just run to daylight. Though the Steelers did almost nothing against Baltimore running the ball (who does?), Arizona is not nearly as stout and guards Chris Kemoeatu and Darnell Stapleton might have chances to get Parker to second level, where he can deadly. As opposed to the other teams the Cardinals defense has faced in the postseason, Pittsburgh won’t give up on the run.
Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -1
Ben Roethlisberger vs Arizona Secondary
Ben Roethlisberger hangs on to the ball too long and takes too many sacks, yawn, yawn, yawn, tell me something new. When Big Ben is healthy he is slipperier than an eel to take down and finds ways to make plays. Because of his size, he’s an inviting target for defenses to take shots at and defensive coordinators tell there players all week to wrap up Roethlisberger, otherwise he’ll make big plays to win. Guess which one happens more often? Santonio Holmes has been a very good compliment to Hines Ward. The former Georgia product demands coverage help, allowing the speedy Holmes more room to roam. The Arizona secondary won’t be listed among the best in football. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a special talent and Cards coaches had to get him on the field. DRC (that’s insider talk in Phoenix) will still make overaggressive mistakes like any rookie corner and Big Ben will test him. Look for OC Bruce Arians to test Roderick Hood early and often. The best way to exploit Hood is with three receiver sets, making former corner and now safety Antrel Rolle guard somebody else one and one, placing Hood on more of an island. With all this going on, tight end Heath Miller becomes another weapon in Pittsburgh’s arsenal, of which the Cardinals secondary can not lose sight of. The best way to contain Roethlisberger is off the edge, make him step up in the pocket with no escape route. He’s at his best going to his right in open spaces to see the whole field and has the patience to let a receiver run to open area and deliver strike. The Arizona defenders have to keep Big Ben in a U-shaped cup to curtail his effectiveness.
Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3
Special Teams
Not much to choose from here as both teams are rather undistinguished. In terms of kicks that could be difference makers, Neil Rackers is 8 for 11 beyond 40 yards for the entire season and one of four past 50 or more yards. Jeff Reed has had much tougher conditions to kick in playing half his games in Heinz Field, yet he is 11 for 15 at 40+ yards. Both have average to below return games on kickoffs and punt returns, though game-breakers are returning kicks. Arizona on average has allowed six more yards per return on kickoffs, though this doesn’t seem to be a significant factor. Looking at the numbers, one could surmise neither team places a great deal of emphasis on special teams and they just presume the players on the field to do what is expected of them.
Spread Differential -None
Coaching
This is a rare matchup of coaches in a Super Bowl game. Beyond the two coaches having to spruce up resumes and work on interviewing skills when the Pittsburgh job opened up two years ago, we don’t know much about either one in such a huge moment, even with a Google search. Not since the 2001 Super Bowl, when Brian Billick and Jim Fassel were on the sidelines for Baltimore and the New York Giants, have we had two coaches without deep backgrounds as head coaches. Both coaches have tough-guy mentalities, with reasonable accountability of their players and they don’t stick with one train of thought to just be stubborn and inflexible. Ken Whisenhunt made the call that Kurt Warner was going to give his team the best chance to win and when Edgerrin James was not producing, did not hesitate to go to Tim Hightower. When it was shown the rookie was not ready for every down duty, Whisenhunt went back to James and praised him for be a professional when relegated to the bench.
Mike Tomlin last season ran a ruthless preseason, establishing himself as the head coach and made the players realize Bill Cowher was indeed gone. Tomlin simplified elements of the Pittsburgh offense and defense, yet never strayed far from the strengths of his squad. If any franchise embodies the fundamentals of professional football, it is Pittsburgh, with blocking and tackling at the core.
Both coaches have proven to be secure in their positions hiring top notch assistants, who could go on to heading coaching jobs one day themselves. With two weeks to prepare, both should have strong game plans designed to negate the other and tricks plays will be used. What we don’t know based on their inexperience on the game’s biggest stage, is how they will react under pressure for certain calls and adjustments to be made.
Spread Differential -None
Intangibles
Unless you were among the few thousands that trudged to Tempe, AZ to sit in 90 to 100 degree heat for almost two decades and never wavered in your belief the Cardinals would someday be in the Super Bowl, this has been a complete shock. The game of professional football has followed the same path as college basketball and major league baseball; it’s what you do late that counts. Arizona has essentially been an underdog just like the Giants were last season, though the Cardinals did have the benefit of two home games. The underdog role fits this team perfectly, just fueling the motivation it needs to just keep on playing outstanding football. The Cardinals are just the second Super Bowl team to have seven losses (1979 L.A. Rams, played Pittsburgh by the way in SB XIV) and like the Giants are free of any expectations coming into Tampa. The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
Pittsburgh is a deserved favorite, having played seven regular season games against teams that made the NFL playoffs, plus New England and Dallas who were post-season caliber. The Steelers were favored 13 times and came away winners on 10 occasions (7-6 ATS), winning by an average margin of eight points. Pittsburgh does have the better team, which has played better all season long. In retrospect, the Giants were hot last year and New England had already peaked and still could have won except for miracle catch. This is not the case with the Steelers who have proven to be a top notch thoroughbred from start to finish. Since Roethlisberger’s arrival, Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in the playoffs.
Spread Differential –Arizona -1
Cumulative Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -6
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