College Basketball Bettor’s Weekend Preview

How good is Florida, really? That question should start to be answered in their prime time matchup with Tennessee. Having won 18 of first 21 games, the talent is evident and a convincing win in hostile environment might be what bettors need to see, to back the Gators down the stretch. Notre Dame will play their fifth straight ranked team and Pitt is sure to be angry off a loss. Memphis is home trying to extend long C-USA winning streak and UCLA will try to change their luck at home against Stanford, who has had success at Pauley Pavilion. North Carolina and N.C. State used to be the game in the ACC, until Duke came along. The Wolfpack have a huge challenge ahead of them, even at home. On Super Bowl Sunday, a couple of physical Big Ten teams will go at it. Check Bookmaker.com for the last numbers on these contests.


Saturday – January 31

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh 12:00ET, ESPN

Points in the paint - this will be the term that will describe the winner of this Big East matchup. Pittsburgh (18-2, 9-6 ATS) has two space-eaters in Tyrell Biggs and DeJuan Blair, who can fill up a lane all by themselves and they will face Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody and his vast array to shots, heaves and tosses. Last season, the Fighting Irish handled the Panthers 82-70, holding Pittsburgh to 40 percent shooting. The Irish did a great job on the boards outrebounding Pitt by eight and the Panthers didn’t help themselves with 11 for 18 from the free throw line.

Jamie Dixon’s club is steadier this season with Levance Fields back running the point and Sam Young is more than just a jump shooter for team that is 17-7 ATS in January the last two years. The loss to Villanova hurt, however Dixon’s teams have through the years not dwelled on losses.

Notre Dame (12-7, 5-9 ATS) looked like Top 10 material back in Maui in November, however have become stagnant since league play opened and have lost four in a row. The lack of bench means heavy minutes for starters and the defensive prowess of last year has evaporated with teams shooting 43 percent. Coach Mike Brey’s club is 14-5 ATS in road games versus defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 39 or less percent after 15 or more games on the year.

Houston at Memphis 1:00ET, CBSC

Conference-USA has reclined back into being a nice, lower level league among the heavyweights with Memphis (17-3, 11-7-1 ATS) no longer considered a national championship threat this season. Still it does leave some intriguing confrontations to consider like Houston (12-6, 9-6 ATS) visiting one of the barbeque hubs. The Cougars have found a combination of players that are 10-4 as starters, with ample firepower, averaging over 78 points a game. Scoring is no issue, but coach Tom Penders has to lean on his squad to play more defense as the shoot-outs against the better teams has led to defeats. Houston is 16-6 ATS on the road versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game after 15 or more played.

Memphis has now won 48 straight C-USA contests and it might be getting harder for this year’s opponents to stop the streak. Freshman Tyreke Evans has moved to point guard and the offense is running smoother. Antonio Anderson is more comfortable in his role in the offense and his defense is as asphyxiating as ever. If there is one area the Tigers have fallen visibly, it is in rebounding, not having a big guy like Joey Dorsey to clean out the lane. The oddsmakers’ numbers this season have been more realistic and Memphis is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season.

Memphis is 15-2 and 10-6-1 ATS as a favorite, winning by 16.9 points per game.


North Carolina at N.C. State 3:30, ABC

North Carolina State (11-7, 8-5-1 ATS) has a problem preparing for in-state rival North Carolina and it is not something easily cured. The Wolfpack has been getting killed on the boards. They have been out-rebounded in four of their last five ACC games and really crushed in last two, by 15 boards in overtime escape against Miami and by 19 in loss at Boston College. In the loss to the Eagles, they gave up 15 offensive rebounds. The Tar Heels have plenty of athletes to climb on the boards, making it imperative the N.C. State to at least create a stalemate on the glass. The Wolfpack is 10-2 and 5-3 ATS at home.

North Carolina (18-2, 9-10 ATS) almost was administered the five finger death punch by Florida State, but survived 80-77 in Tallahassee. The Tar Heels had problems finding open shots in the second half, scoring just nine field goals after the intermission. The drop in intensity allowed the Seminoles to score 33 points off North Carolina turnovers. Expect Tyler Hansbrough to come to play after scoring only eight points, breaking his streak of 55 consecutive games in double digits. The Tar Heels are 9-1 and 6-4 ATS away from Chapel Hill this season.

North Carolina is 8-3 SU and ATS in Raleigh since 1997.


Stanford at UCLA 3:30ET, ABC

Former Duke assistant Johnny Dawkins was patient and waited for the right opportunity to leave the nest and gravitated towards a university that had similar values. The move has paid off thus far with Stanford (13-5, 13-4 ATS) playing good basketball despite the loss of the Lopez twins. Forward Lawrence Hill and guard Anthony Goods have been the bell-cows which Dawkins has leaned on. The win against rival Cal was imperative after losing twice in the State of Washington; however losing to Oregon State at home again raises questions. The Cardinal is 9-1 ATS on the January road this last two years, after losing to USC by a single point as six point underdogs.

It isn’t that UCLA (16-4, 9-10 ATS) is a bad team, their not, they just can be befuddling at times and give uneven efforts. Josh Shipp is a good shooter, but will let poor fundamentals undermine his effectiveness and be streakier than necessary. Darren Collison works hard to set-up teammates and doesn’t look for his shot often enough. One real positive has been Michael Roll settling nicely into his sixth-man role and has scored 10 or more points often since Pac-10 play resumed. The impressive 81-66 win over Cal, showed what UCLA is capable of. The Bruins are 11-1 and 5-6 ATS at Pauley Pavilion this year.

Amazingly, Stanford is 8-3 SU and ATS at UCLA recently.


Florida at Tennessee 9:00ET, ESPN

This is the third of three very demanding tilts for Tennessee (12-7, 7-8-2 ATS) still trying to find defensive identity. The Vols floundered most of the early part of January and the players were recalcitrant to coach Bruce Pearl’s heedings, but changes were made in schemes and the players did some soul-searching among themselves. If there is a quality about Pearl’s teams, they need to resemble him, full of swagger. Tennessee is built around the talents of Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism. They are the starters and finishers for Orange and White, nevertheless the rest of the players have to contribute in the other parts of the game for the Volunteers to be at their best. They are 21-11 ATS as a home favorite or pick, however that record is quickly falling with four home losses in Knoxville this season.

Can a team with a solid a record as Florida at 18-3 (7-7 ATS) still be a mystery? The answer is yes. Much like the polling process in Florida, receiving the tabulations on the Gators has been slow to come by. Results are being formulated by SEC play and contests like this at Knoxville create a greater understanding. Nobody is wondering about Nick Calathes and his abilities and answers the critics. "We don't mind the doubters,” the sophomore point guard said. “We’re just looking to get better every day in practice." Even with last Sunday’s convincing thumping at Vanderbilt; the Gators are 5-3 and 3-4 ATS away from home.

Florida is 3-8 and 4-7 ATS at Tennessee.

Sunday – February 1

Penn State at Michigan State 12:00ET, Big Ten Network

For Super Bowl Sunday, the college basketball action is expectedly light; nonetheless, this should be a Big 10 bruiser. Michigan State (17-3, 9-8 ATS) is well-known for its aggressive nature and dishing out a little mayhem on the hardwood. Goran Suton and Raymar Morgan can play rough under the boards and the Spartans like to bump and grind on the defensive end. What makes them the best club in the Big Ten is shooting ability on the perimeter and exceptional speed, for a team in this conference, with Kalin Lucas running the point. Sparty is 26-9 ATS at home playing good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games.

Penn State (16-5, 10-4 ATS) is no longer the pushover they have been for the better part of there stay in the Big Ten, with several victories of merit. The Nittany Lions are showing progress on the road also at 3-2 and 4-1 ATS. The team revolves around senior forward Jamelle Cornley, who is there only reliable inside threat and can step out also and knock down jumpers. When other Penn State players make shots, the Lions are dangerous and they will need to be with 0-8 (3-5 ATS) mark at East Lansing.