Eastern Conference Conflict

Its one game out of 82 during the regular season and its true ramifications won’t be felt until later, if at all. Nevertheless, for the Orlando Magic, their goal is to make this a magical night and defeat the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics. Orlando already has the best record in the Eastern Conference (a half a game over Cleveland) and believes they have closed the gap from a year ago and are true competitors to be conference champions.

Jameer Nelson believes the Magic are the equal or extremely close of being on par with the Celtics. “They’re a great team. We’re a good team,” said Nelson. “We’re trying to get to where they are.” It’s hard to argue with Nelson on his point studying the numbers.

If you discount New York, who is learning to play Mike D’Antoni basketball, Orlando is second in the East in points scored at 102.3 and Boston is third at 100.9. The Celtics do shoot at a higher percentage (48.1 vs 46.1), but a large part of that is a matter of preference, as the Magic make over 10 three-points a game, with approximately one-third of their shots beyond the arc. Boston runs a more conventional offense in attempting nine fewer long shots a contest.

Orlando also hopes to learn what a few others believe. Boston players are well-known in the league for talking more garbage then just about anybody. If opponents let this “smack” talk get to them, game over for Kevin Garnett and the rest of the yappers. However, if a team can maintain its poise and just play with the Celtics, the belief now is they tend to become quieter and in turn less intimidating.

For NBA bettors, there is a plethora of great angles from which to choose, it looks like a $5.99 all-you-can-eat buffet at the Trends table. Boston jumped on Miami early last night and coasted to 98-83 win as 5.5-point favorites. The C’s are 24-11 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days and amazing 71-42 ATS in road contests period, over the last three seasons. Doc Rivers has sold his club on playing one game at a time (besides how else would you do it) and they are 18-8 ATS when playing against top-level teams with a win percentage of 70 percent or higher since last season. When facing mad bombers like the Orlando, few problems, with 37-22 ATS record versus 3-point shooting teams making 36 percent of their attempts.

Orlando this season can play the “what ever you can do, we can do better” game. The Magic are back home after sweeping a four game road trip with four covers and are the best road squad in the NBA. They are 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and are 14-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. The largest defeat Dwight Howard’s team has suffered was at the hands of Boston 107-88 as 8.5-point road underdogs and they are 22-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Though Orlando is one spot behind Boston in field goal percentage defense at third, the Magic are perfect 12-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 192.5. The Magic may have two psychological edges in this meeting in Central Florida. The first is Jameer Nelson missed the Dec.1 meeting and is back playing the best basketball of his NBA career and the Magic have won six in a row at home over the Celtics (5-1 ATS) giving them a further boost of confidence. The teams are a combined 21-13-1 UNDER in home/road dichotomy, with Boston 11-2 UNDER after four straight wins by 10 points or more and the Orlando 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight outings.

Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is trying to keep this one game in perspective. “I’ve said all along, and I honestly think it’s true: If they’ll give us two wins for the Boston game, then I’ll make it bigger than the other games,” Van Gundy said. “Otherwise, it’s not.”

While the coach may feel this way, not all of his players are buying what the coach is selling. “It means a lot,” Magic forward Rashard Lewis said. “Obviously, Eastern Conference game, one of the best teams in the conference, last year’s champion. We’re at a point where we want to get home-court advantage throughout the whole playoffs, so this game means a lot. At the end of the season, it’s going to come down to games like this.”

No matter what, this is the opener on TNT NBA Thursday starting at 8 Eastern and it should be compelling.