What’s up with the SEC in College Hoops?

For much of the 1980’s and a good part of the 1990’s, SEC basketball was a kindly distraction after the Southeastern Conference football season was completed and spring football began. Oh sure, Kentucky was always in the mix of top teams in the country, but they were a basketball school compared to the rest of the league. That’s not to say they didn’t play good basketball in the SEC, every now and again an Alabama or Vanderbilt would rise into the higher stratosphere of the Top 10 and have exceptional years and then the coach would leave for a better paying job someplace else.

Everything started to change when Nolan Richardson came to Arkansas and he led the Razorbacks to national championship in 1995. Two years later the SEC had two teams in the Final Four and Rick Pitino led Kentucky to a national title. After taking the Wildcats to the championship the following year, Pitino felt compelled (money) to test his skills in the NBA and Tubby Smith moved into the Kentucky hot seat and won the NCAA championship with Pitino’s players.

The conference transformed into a hotbed of talent, arenas were filling up and excitement was on the rise. Hot coaching prospects were brought in to compete with Kentucky and almost every year the SEC had four teams in the Sweet 16. Billy Donovan, a Pitino protégé lit a fire under Florida’s basketball, culminating with back-to-back national titles in 2006-07. So what happened?

For the second week in a row, the SEC does not have a team ranked in the Top 25 which has become a topic of discussion on college basketball telecasts and halftime shows. If you include the ESPN/USA Today Top 25, the last time this conference did have a team in the Top 25 two weeks in a row was the 1997-98 season. How can the SEC not have a ranked team is the question?

Let’s start with the computer guys, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. Pomeroy has KenPom.com college basketball ratings that are very sophisticated and he at least sees Kentucky at No. 20, with Florida at No. 38. Sagarin has the bigger brand name with his USA Today affiliation and he has the Wildcats 31st and the Gators 33rd.

Part of the problem with SEC is shooting. This league has Kentucky and Florida both shooting over 49 percent and South Carolina isn’t bad at 47.4 percent. However, only the Gamecocks and LSU shoot over 38 percent from beyond the arc. Skeptics will point towards the basketball numbers being similar to what happens in football, defense rules in the South.

The SEC has six teams that allow under 40 percent of shots to be made. Sounds impressive, until you realize the Big East has five teams and the ACC has an astonishing eight teams that also play stellar defense.

The truth is the SEC doesn’t even belong in the same conversation as the other two conferences just mentioned and here’s why.

Reviewing the Sagarin ratings by conference, the Southeastern has 10 teams with a schedule difficulty of 193rd or worse. Consider the ACC and the Big East has only one team each (N.C. State and Rutgers respectively) that have played a schedule worse than a 193rd and the Pac-10 team with the easiest slate is UCLA at 136th.

In addition, it’s not like the SEC has routed all these pushover opponents. Where do we start? Georgia lost to Loyola-Chic by 21 and somebody named Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Arkansas beats top Big 12 teams Oklahoma and Texas at home and shows its multiple personalities in starting 0-3 in conference along with losing to Missouri State. Ole Miss has had more then their share of injuries, yet losing to Southern Miss by 19 and by 33 at New Mexico as four point underdogs, ranks right up their with Alabama and Auburn losing to Mercer, who is a middle of the road club in the mighty Atlantic Sun Conference. Kentucky was the one who started this whole mess, losing season and home opener to VMI 111-103.

Nothing is really to be learned from studying numbers against the spread and too few conference games have been played to really make an astute judgment otherwise.

This is a league largely devoid of senior talent, with its best player’s juniors and sophomores. Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson at Kentucky, Tyler Smith at Tennessee, Nick Calathes at Florida and O.J. Ogilvy at Vanderbilt could compete with any five all-conference performers in the country, but going to the bench for almost as good second team would expose this league.

Most of the freshmen with high expectations have not shined as brightly as expected, and have been up and down, like you would expect a freshman to play.

The coaching carousel has spun, which hasn’t helped and others that have shorter service have not stepped up. South Carolina and LSU are presumed to improve with talented coaches like Darrin Horn and Trent Johnson, but guaranteed success, not likely. Patience in running thin at Auburn and Georgia, where Jeff Lebo and Dennis Felton have not met, let alone exceeded fans expectations. Coaches at Arkansas, Mississippi and even Billy Gillispie to a lesser degree at Lexington are still trying to feel comfortable.

Can the SEC improve before the NCAA tournament, without a doubt. A few wins can gel a club and they go on a tear. However, they will have to do so playing primarily each other, which could be good or like the Big Ten in football, create false pretense, which is later exposed.

Betting the SEC is a tricky proposition until we have a better read on the teams, which might not ever happen this season.