Can you Profit from a Hot Goalie?

In the NHL playoffs, a hot netminder or two can carry a team deep into the postseason, as the style of play is more grinding and teams take fewer chances. But what about the regular season, can a hockey better profit from wagering on a goalie and his defensemen keeping the puck out of the net over a period of time?

First, had to determine what would constitute sizzling defensive play. The decision was made allowing four goals or less over a group of three games. From wagering perspective, how would the team do in next visit to the rink?

The breakdown was home and road favorites and home and road underdog roles. We wanted to know how all NHL teams would react, can they continue to play well or does their skill and luck run out?

Playing on home favorites would seem to make the most sense, since at least one aspect of the team seemed in order on half of the ice. This area enjoyed the finest recrord at 17-10, with the profits almost negligible at +0.40. Arriving at this result is not surprising, considering oddsmakers would shade the home favorite a bit more based on solid defensive play and losses would in turn be more costly. Seven of the losses suffered were at a -160 or higher on the money line, really dragging down profit potential, in spite of winning percentage of 63 percent.

Interestingly, the Eastern Conference teams were superior at 8-3, for +2.98 units.
There were just five instances of home underdogs that fit this study. Though the 3-2 record and +1.78 units mark is adequate, would have believed the record to be better because of stellar defense.

Taking this act on the road figured to be more trying and it was, though not dreadful. Road favorites are 9-8, losing 1.74 units. The best lesson to be learned from this group is what happens to the smaller visiting favorites. Of the eight defeats suffered, six were listed as -130 money line or less favorites. This suggests the road team is competent, yet hardly overwhelming and might be overrated after playing so well defensively.

Road underdogs could not be thought of a good wager and they were not. These travelers won just 10 of 25 contests, for -3.48 units. Similar to the story above, the best way to win is finding shorter road dogs. Eight of the 10 wins came in situations of +150 or less, which places the numbers in your favor to improve profit potential.

While digging for this exercise, a few other intriguing elements arose. The Eastern Conference has a dramatically better record at 17-10 (+6.93 units) compared to the Western Conference, which limped in at 22-25 (10.07 units.) The West ended up with significantly more situations, at 63.5 percent of all, in part because three teams in the East have not gone three games in a row with strong defensive play. Atlanta and Tampa Bay being among the three is no shocking, however if you believe Montreal is poised to make a run in the NHL playoffs, you might want to reconsider that notion based on shaky defense at present time.

Returning to original question, is it a good idea to wager on a hot goaltender, a 39-35 record, with -3.04 units lost would signify no. There are a few instances that could be bankroll builder, like playing East teams or finding shorter money line plays on road underdogs. In addition, playing against smallish road favorites has have proven in profitable in 2008-09 campaign. The best advice is be very selective and know the numbers, otherwise pass.