The NBA Second Half Picture

The NBA’s second half of the season is about to begin and though the playoffs can be interesting like last season, only a few select teams have a realistic chance to win the NBA title. The rest are pretenders and wanna-be’s and are or could be in the NBA playoffs, with little or no chance to be champions. Here is a look into the crystal ball from this point forward.

True Eastern Conference Contenders

There are three teams in the East with a legitimate chance to be the Eastern Conference representative in the finals and Bookmaker.com bares this out. Under the category of odds for number one seeds, Boston is -145, Cleveland +130 and Orlando +1275.

Boston being the favorite, still has problems to consider, especially with ability to look back to last season. P.J. Brown and James Posey were two valuable bench players the Celtics had and neither is around this year. This would not seem to be an issue finishing out the regular season with a flourish and it might not mean anything if they lack height in the East, since nobody has exceptionally tall players to contend with. However, if the Lakers are the opponent in the finals and Andrew Bynum is back to at least play 20-25 minutes per game, Boston could be caught short, literally, with bad mismatches and not enough scoring. No deals are possible to make the Celtics better at this time.

Cleveland not being healthy limits what they can realistically do to be in position to defeat Boston four times in seven games. With Sasha Pavlovic and Delonte West still sidelined, Wally Szczerbiak is the best option at shooting guard, though making a trade with Phoenix to acquire Amare Stoudemire or Jason “Speedy” Richardson (caught driving 90 MPH in 35 speed zone with child in the car) is tempting if one of Robert Sarver’s multiple personalities is available at that moment to make deal. You wouldn’t think the Cavs could keep covering at 33-18 ATS rate, however the East has enough softies and LeBron has the club ready to go almost every night. GM Danny Ferry either stands pat or finds perfect deal to add paint scorer and rebounder.

With Jameer Nelson listed at 6’0, it’s hard to fathom a player of his stature would have such an impact on a NBA team. However, his value is easy to measure for the Orlando Magic. Since being injured on Feb.2, Orlando is 2-3 SU and ATS, with two of the losses coming at home. What Nelson added besides being part of a contingent of deadly three-point shooters was the ability to penetrate deep and find Dwight Howard or open shooter. Nobody else has that talent on the Magic roster. The most obvious solution to improve is to sit down with Rashard Lewis and explain to him his salary is based on elite production, not what he feels like any given game. Get Lewis to match the value of paycheck, more possibilities open up.

True Western Conference Contenders

This might be a misnomer anyways, but this is how the West shakes out. The L.A. Lakers are prohibitive -2200 favorites to be top seed, San Antonio second at +1400 and Denver third at +1600. The Lakers sweeping Cleveland and Boston does point to them being more tough-minded than a year ago. Pau Gasol has meshed into the fold and the players know what it is like to play without Andrew Bynum. That doesn’t mean the Lakers are cinch to beat either club without Bynum. The task could be made easier with a focused Lamar Odom, who has been a force since returning to starting lineup. Keep his head on straight (good luck Phil) and maybe Los Angeles has enough. Counting on Odom three and four months down the road is like believing Shaq is coming back to the Lakers.

Tim Duncan was campaigning for a partner to score near the bucket and who likes to rebound, during the All-Star break. That is easier said than done and coach Greg Popovich is more concerned with how his team’s defensive efforts have fallen (18th field goal defense percentage) then adding a Vince Carter whose salary but doesn’t improve defense.

The Denver Nuggets look to have their best team since George Karl arrived as coach. Denver shoots a higher percentage than San Antonio (47.2 vs 46.5), plays better positional defense, in ranking as the best team in the West (fourth overall) at 44.1 percent field goal defense and has a slightly better points differential than the Spurs (+3.6 to +3.3). For the Nuggets, it is the mental hurdle of surpassing the Spurs. They trail the Duncan Gang by one game, which means they have to be two games better than the Spurs the rest of the way, since they won’t meet again in regular season.

East Playoff Contenders

Atlanta has a three game lead for the fourth seed in the East and as long as they keep winning at home with 19-6 mark (12-13 ATS) they should stay right where they are. Throw a limp blanket over Miami, Philadelphia and Detroit for slots five thru seven. Based on all-around play, Philadelphia appears to have the best shot to be fifth seed and outside chance of moving all the way to fourth. The Sixers have home and home with both other contenders and if they keep focusing on team, they should have an excellent chance for success.

Not sure if A.I. cutting hair helps the Pistons, who look like a prize fighter well past his prime. Miami has been better, yet beyond D-Wade, not built for stretch run.

It doesn’t seem humanly possible Milwaukee can or will hang on to last playoff position with all the injuries, especially if they move Richard Jefferson. This would open the door for New Jersey, Chicago, New York and Charlotte, with the Nets the choice if they start to play better at home (11-16 SU and ATS).

West Playoff Contenders

Three games separate the six teams fighting for five playoff slots. Portland is the likely choice to finish fourth, with still a chance to catch Denver for Northwest Division crown. The Blazers have the best point differential at +3.5 among the contenders. Portland has the second best home record out West at 20-5 (15-9-1 ATS) and like Dallas, has the most remaining home games (16), which should help a young and improving club.

With All-Stars Chris Paul and David West back to full health and Tyson Chandler reportedly not far behind, New Orleans is poised to make a run at No.4 seed. With 18 of the remaining 32 games on the road, the Hornets would appear to be at disadvantage; however Chandler is the key, does he plays with the intensity of last year or the nonplussed performer he has been most of this year.

Not certain about the rest of squads in contention. Houston and Dallas are above average hangers on. Utah has had the injury bug most of the year and has a long way to go to overcome 9-17 (11-15 ATS) road record. Phoenix is quickly sinking into a laughable franchise with owner Robert Sarver being the Joe Biden of the NBA, never really sure what he’s going to do next.