The 2009 Masters Preview

The premier golf event on the calendar arrives this week, with its emerald green fairways, blooming azaleas and its other colorful array of flowers and shrubs. The golf course that is The Masters at Augusta National is like no place on earth. On windier days, you can hear the whistling of the dogwoods and pines trees and if you watched any college basketball the last three weeks, the promos read on ESPN or CBS had announcers going from excitable voices from the games to hushed monotone deliveries in promoting this year’s event.

The Masters this year has a different feel and anticipation from the last several for reasons outside of the tournament. The defending champion Trevor Immelman is trying to become just the fourth back-to-back champion. Rest assured he will draw little if any wagering action at Bookmaker.com and other wagering locations at +10000, since he all but disappeared after winning at Augusta. He tied for second in Memphis, but didn't have another top-10 finish until the Tour Championship, where he was 10th in a 30-man field. His best showing was 19th at the Transitions Championship this season, not exactly the description of a hot golfer.

One story almost nobody is talking about is Padraig Harrington. He has won three of the last six majors, including two in a row and is halfway to the Paddy-Slam. Why Harrington isn’t receiving his just due is because a certain Mr. Woods was recuperating from knee surgery having won the previous major, the U.S. Open, before being forced to shut it down. In some circles, though it is ludicrous, Harrington being the reigning British Open and PGA champion, is viewed like the Houston Rockets winning back to back championships when Hall of Famer to be Michael Jordan was finding out he couldn’t hit the curveball during a two year hiatus. Harrington is +1500 wager to snare a third consecutive major.

A couple of oldies but goodies will be playing at The Masters, with one such golfer making first appearance in some time. Fred Couples is almost eligible for the senior tour, (fine, Champions Tour) and was in the hunt at the Houston Open last week until he played the last three holes, three over. Maybe its wedded bliss, tired of being successful at everything he touches or just has a bit of the golf bug back, but Greg Norman returns to Augusta for the first time in seven years. Neither player is expected to be in contention; nevertheless, seeing them even at advanced ages is like watching your favorite rock band from 12-20 years ago. Older yes, but still fun.

While nostalgia has its place, eventually everybody is replaced by a younger more skilled competitor. Two that fit this mold are Anthony Kim and Rory McIlroy. Kim (+3000) was the best player last fall and has been globe-trotting a little too much to likely be a factor. McIlroy (+2500) is 19 and has serious game, as he proved at WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship.
Everybody wants to find that long-shot which could come in, yet still is considered a very good player that offers value. Sergio Garcia (+2500), Camilo Villegas (+4000) and Ernie Els (+3000) are ranked in the top 20 of the World Golf Rankings and would be the type of players that would make sensible wager. One problem, this trio has failed to make the cut each of the last two years in Georgia.

There are a number of other players with golf skills that have to be considered like Retief Gossen and Paul Casey at +2500. Jim Furyk (+3000) always gets a look as a grinder and Luke Donald and Lee Westwood are renowned players and are part of a group at +5000.

The second choice is Phil Mickelson at +800 and he expects to be in the hunt for third green jacket since 2004. Mickelson appreciates the history and has learned to build himself towards this invitational. Lefty has been hitting irons brilliantly all year, including adding a draw from distance since the off-season. His driving has been more erratic (even for Phil), but that has to do with mindset. Like the Nike commercial from a few years ago, “Chicks dig the long ball”, Mickelson has always been obsessed with distance and it costs him often. With the length of Augusta National today, you have to get off the tee, nonetheless a playable second shot is as important. If the driver is working, definite threat.

Lastly is Tiger Woods at +220 to win a fifth green jacket. Woods added to his ever growing legend at Bay Hill with long birdie putt to win, which pronounced him as back. Tiger is a rare athlete, always able to find the slightest motivation to create burning desire and though some way work as hard today, nobody works harder in golf to be their best.

After Woods won in 2005, those in charge of the course made more adjustments to “Tiger-proof” the course. They effectively changed the best theatre in golf to the U.S. Open. The Masters has never been about surviving, it was been grabbing history by the throat and claiming it. Sometimes this has led to colossal failure, like Greg Norman and Curtis Strange felt. But to legislate players from making stirring comebacks by posting a 32 or 33 on the backside on Sunday, because few were given too much power thinking this tournament could turn into the Bob Hope, well that is preposterous.

Trevor Immelman deserved to win last year’s Masters, but his final round 75 marked the first time in 26 years the champion shot over par in the final round and it was the highest final round by a winner since Arnold Palmer had the same score way back in 1962, which he later won in playoff.

It’s no fun to pick Tiger Woods or even Phil Mickelson, but on golf’s grandest stage, it is the safest bet.