College Basketball Championship Preview

This year’s NCAA title game has something for everybody. For those that believe in fate, you have to be pleased that powers greater than our understanding has Michigan State playing for championship, based on circumstances. Tom Izzo’s team was fortunate to have a situation where they could take a bus to title tilt and if they won, they could start partying immediately, with probably 45,000 or more green-clad fans.

If your personality has a more orderly process and prefers continuity, where how one thing starts should have ending that follows in same fashion, then North Carolina is a custom made club. The Tar Heels started the season No.1 and are one game away from finishing in the very same spot.

Michigan State (31-6, 20-13-1 ATS) will have revenge in their hearts having been pulverized by North Carolina in the very same building (this will be on NCAA approved floor) 98-63 as 10-point underdogs on Dec. 3. By now everyone knows Goran Suton did not play in that game and this is a much better Spartans squad which is 22-9 ATS revenging a same season loss. A Michigan State win would also mean they were as tough as the city of Detroit, beating three top seeds in a row.

North Carolina (33-4, 17-19) has had the backing of the media all season and the talent to back it up. They too have battled thru injuries, never having the services of Marcus Ginyard, their best defender, and Ty Lawson being in and out of the lineup enough to matter. When the scent of a championship was finally in the air, the Tar Heels rammed through five opponents by over 20 points per game, covering the spread each time. North Carolina is 9-1 SU and ATS in the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons and 7-1 ATS in road games after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season.

The folks at Bookmaker.com have North Carolina favored by 7.5-points with the total drifting downward to 152.5. That sets up for the final score to be approximately 80-72 in favor of the Tar Heels.

The number of points Michigan State allows is terribly important. This season, when Izzo’s crew surrenders 70 or more points they are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS. Granted, they defeated Connecticut in that manner, but as coach Izzo knows, North Carolina is different. “If we play good and they play good, we’re losing. That’s the way I look at it,” Izzo said. “I mean, I don’t look at that in the negative. They are the best team in the country and have earned that ranking probably over the last year and a half.”

Michigan State has to continue to receive contributions from everyone who plays, be it freshman Korie Lucious hitting three’s or Draymond Green being physical and chipping in a point a minute. The Spartans have to keeping earning second chance points by storming the boards and playing superlative perimeter defense. Raymar Morgan is the wild card, because if he scores 18-20 points, he gives the partisan crowd something to stand up and cheer about. The Spartans are tough-minded 15-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.

Bobby Knight said one of the hardest things to do is carry the weight all year of being expected to be champions and finish it to the end. North Carolina has worn that collar of burden all season, with its four losses by a grand total of 16 points. Michigan State can be a very effective transition team; however nobody goes 94 feet faster with the ball than the Tar Heels.

Ty Lawson has blinding speed and Wayne Ellington and Danny Green are forever is just the right locations to receive feeds for open shots. As mentioned previously, this Roy Williams team is not known for its defensive prowess, but you can ask Oklahoma and Villanova if they thought UNC can pull up the shorts and guard. There ability to create 6-0 and 8-0 runs test the will of opposing teams. Michigan State won’t back down, but neither will Tyler Hansbrough and when you think about, what player embodies the toughness principles of coach Izzo basketball more than Psycho-T. The Heels build momentum with offensive pressure and are 14-5 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games.

On Monday night, it will truly be one shining moment; will it be destiny ringing the bell for Michigan State or North Carolina finishing what they started?