Can Denver really pull the upset?

Hard to fathom coach George Karl put in more then 10 minutes since last Thursday in preparation for Houston for Game 1 on the Western Conference Finals. Karl’s club will be well rested with six days between games and anxious to show the basketball world they belong. He’s also wise enough to know, no matter how bad the Los Angeles Lakers appeared at times in last series, the Rockets were not able to defeat the Lake Show four times, which is Denver’s mission.

One of the most difficult aspects of handicapping a series is forgetting about the entire regular season. The Lakers won 65 games during the regular season; Denver tied a franchise best with 54 W’s. Los Angeles had the look of a champion, more than doubling the Nuggets average scoring margin per game (7.7 vs 3.4), showing their superiority.

It’s very easy to look at the Lakers against these upstarts and asked the question of Denver – What have you done?

This is where the lines start to blur, causing consternation. The Nuggets have won 22 of last 27 games and to prove how impressive this number is, they have covered the spread 20 times, including all 10 playoff games. Consider oddsmakers really can’t put up numbers to draw bettors to bet bad numbers with so few of games, thus have to list a fair number to attract action on both sides. To think Denver has bested the line maker 10 straight times, that is awfully impressive.

Denver’s strength’s revolve around Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Each can be dynamic scorer and Billups makes ‘Melo better, especially at this time of year with ability to distribute. Billups brought defensive toughness over from the Motor City, giving the Nuggets defenders help in the front and back courts.

Denver has a swat team in the frontcourt, with Nene and Kenyon Martin and “The Birdman” Chris Anderson. The Nuggets are far from a top notch defensive team like Cleveland, but with these players contesting every shot within 12 feet of the basket, nothing comes easy. To show the change in mindset, Denver is 8-0 ATS after three straight games when both teams scored 100 points or fewer this season.

The Lakers are not to be dismissed; it’s just not as clear where they stand. The only constant is inconsistent effort. Phil Jackson used a wise move before Game 7 to take the pressure off his team for contradictory performances, by saying he wasn’t sure what Houston team would show up for the series finale, since it was the Rockets who were up and down to the Zen Master’s way of thinking.

It’s easy to forget Boston played two Game 7’s the first two rounds last season, before finding the right rhythm and becoming NBA champions. Los Angeles plays very disjointed right now. Losing Games 4 and 6 so badly to Houston, only underscored their vulnerability against a team who wanted it more than they did. Ask any NBA expert or sharp sports better right today who is the better team and you’ll get either a blank stare or the eyes will move to upper right, as they contemplate answer before speaking.

One perception of Los Angeles appears as true today as last year. How Andrew Bynum goes, so likely to will the Lakers. In games where he is involved mentally and physically from the start, the Lakers play better and have more physical presence. In other contests where he is lazy defensively and draws quick fouls, he retreats like a turtle into his shell and is non-factor. Bynum’s importance is proven in numbers other than wins and losses.

The Lakers margin of victory during the regular season was 1.8 points per game more with Bynum in the line-up. While that figure doesn’t sound like much, it’s a 26.4 percent difference. An easier to comprehend method is to look at Bynum’s play in the last four games against Houston. In the wins (both at Staples Center), he had 28 points, 14 rebounds and just four total fouls. In the losses, ZERO points, 9 boards and six early fouls that ended up in serious bench time.

The Lakers won and covered three of four meetings this season and are opening at home, where they are 7-1 SU and ATS against Denver in L.A. The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com have Los Angeles as -300 favorites to win the series and have them as 6.5-point favorites to win the opener, with total of 215. Kobe Bryant won’t have to face such individual defensive pressure like the last series and his team is 11-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive Unders. Expect the Lakers to want to open it up and they are 16-4 OVER in home games after a combined score of 165 points or less.

Denver has 100 percent extreme confidence coming into the series, plus will want to open up a can of “Want To” to express to people just how good they are. The Nuggets are at the top of their game at the moment and are 13-4 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 percent or more of their shots since Game 42 this season.

Can Denver upset the Lakers the way they are playing, undoubtedly if L.A. continues to put forth the same effort. It isn’t a reach however to believe the Kobe and friends realize they are four wins away from repeat trip to The Finals and elevate their game to new heights. About all we can tell at the moment is Denver is ready and the Lakers are capable, the drama begins in ESPN at 9:05 Eastern.