Read a great article this week by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, talking about 70-75 percent of all baseball players dislike interleague play. Among the reasons given are unfamiliarity of players, meaningless matchups (the Pittsburgh vs Washington series was a classic this week), dealing with the DH and unfair schedule for teams within same division. Excuse me while I wipe away the tears for these blockheads. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers whining about having to the play the toughest schedule before last season, how did that work out?While we all share their pain, enough of us like it. Attendance typically runs ahead of the norm for these games (10 percent last season), suggesting we like the rivalry games and are curious enough to go to the park to see in person players and teams we would not ordinarily be able to. Taking it further, according to Stark’s article, if you subtracted rivalry matchups in each of the last three seasons, interleague attendance was still 7.5 percent higher last year, 4.1 percent bigger in 2007 and 6.0 percent larger in 2006.
For sports bettors, interleague play has created a great deal of opportunity if you follow the K.I.S.S. method. The American League has been the dominant force for better than a decade and not many signs point to change.
To blindly play every American League team since 2003, you would have a 709-565 record (55.7 percent) and netted +94.7 units or about +19 units per year, just betting interleague games. That’s rather eye-opening.
Oddsmakers are doing their best to curtail the situation, by adding margin into AL teams to make them less attractive, however if the National League clubs can’t win, no number is going to chase off enough action to make a big enough difference to those accepting wagers.
It is nothing short of amazing to review the numbers see in the last two years only the New York Mets (17-13, +2.4 units) and Chicago Cubs (14-13, -0.9) have winning records versus the junior circuit. With 14 NL teams having .500 or below records, this equates to 222-291 record, 43.3 percent. In just two years, betting the 16 NL clubs would have cost -57.45 units, meaning you had roughly 2,336 other games to wager on to get your money back for this folly.
Only the St. Louis Cardinals have winning record at 43-38 (+3) the last five years against the AL, showing how wide the differential is between the two leagues in head to head competition.
For the most part, the oddsmakers like those at DiammondSportsbook.com have been in tune with the total, with only a handful of teams sticking out. Over the last couple of years, Atlanta (11-18), San Francisco (11-19) and the Dodgers (11-19) have managed to play UNDER, while Florida (20-10) and Baltimore (21-13) have gone the other direction and been OVER the number.
The Braves have been more consistent in the totals direction over a longer period of time, with 44-32 UNDER mark since 2003. The Cleveland Indians have kept pace with the Bravos in this category with 51-38 UNDER record in the same time frame.
On the other end of the spectrum is the Arizona at 43-33 OVER and the Kansas City Royals at even better 51-37 OVER the last five seasons.
The run line shows potential for interleague play, more so then regular league encounters. In the last two years, games decided by two or more runs were 62 of 83 played the opening weekend of interleague action, which is 74.6 percent. Though the number is small compared to all games played, it does show a trend towards games that are not as close, since normally one run games make up about 28-31 percent on any given year.
Over the last several seasons, a number of teams have shown potential as drawing worthy consideration for the run line; here is what teams matched up.
Boston won by 1.6 runs per game - L5Y
Detroit won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Kansas City won by 1.4 RPG - L2Y
L.A. Angels won by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
L.A. Dodgers lost by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
Minnesota won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Twins won by 1.6 RPG – L5Y
Pittsburgh lost by 2.1 RPG – L5Y
San Francisco lost by 1.5 RPG – L2Y
Detroit won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Kansas City won by 1.4 RPG - L2Y
L.A. Angels won by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
L.A. Dodgers lost by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
Minnesota won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Twins won by 1.6 RPG – L5Y
Pittsburgh lost by 2.1 RPG – L5Y
San Francisco lost by 1.5 RPG – L2Y
This should provide good information heading into holiday weekend for profitable interleague action. To see a complete breakdown of every MLB team in interleague play the last decade, click here. Good Luck.
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