MLB Series Betting- Red Sox at Blue Jays

The heavy sigh emitting out of the Toronto Blue Jays clubhouse is one of relief. Though everything is far from perfect, it’s nice to be home after a road trip that was as bad as it gets. On May 19, Toronto embarked on nine-game road trip, with 3 1/2 game lead in the AL East. After visits to Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore, the Blue Jays limped home 0-9 and in third place. The offense deserves most of the blame scoring 13 runs in first eight games. When the bats finally awoke, the bullpen couldn’t hold a five-run lead in the eighth inning in Baltimore and blew a two-run lead in extra innings in the same game. Manager Cito Gaston was relieved his club was off on Thursday, "I think it's going to be a welcome thing for all of us to get away from the game for a day and come back and pick up on Friday," said Gaston.

Boston earned a split in Minnesota, with 3-1 afternoon victory Thursday, to start 10-game road trip 2-2. "(Playing) .500 baseball on the road is pretty good," Jeff Bailey said. "If you can get above of that, it's excellent. It's a good thing -- especially coming off two straight losses -- to get that win." This allowed Boston to have half-game lead over New York for first place in the AL East.

The Red Sox have had their problems are artificial turf and are 11-23 on the fake stuff the last couple of years. Toronto is ninth in on-base percentage with .353 average and Boston is 18-4 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better this season. The Red Sox will start Tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99) in the opener, who is 17-11 lifetime against the Jays with 3.68 ERA. DiamondSportsbook.com has Boston and their knuckle-baller as -114 money line favorites, with a total of Un10 and they are 16-7 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher since last season.

Toronto counters with Casey Janssen (0-1, 4.50 ERA), who started six days ago and had a solid game, which was his first big league outing since 2007. He pitched six innings and allowed three runs after returning from torn labrum he suffered to pitching shoulder in March 2008. The Jays are 20-7 in home games after allowing eight runs or more, which they did in 12-10 loss to Orioles two days ago.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This will be the first game of the day on Saturday, with just after 1:00 Eastern start and Toronto has won 11 of last 15 games on this day of the week. The Blue Jays coming into the series being one the best home team’s in baseball with 16-6 record, picking up +8 units of profit. Toronto has also enjoyed playing in the daytime with 14-5 record. They will start Brian Tallet (2-3, 4.31), who is a career reliever, forced into action with depleted starting staff. He’s pitched well in seven of eight starts and the left-hander has been much tough on right-hand batters who are hitting only .190 against him (lefty’s .270). He’s also pitched much better at the Rogers Centre with 2.66 ERA.

Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96) has a very good record, which doesn’t explain how poorly he has pitched, with ERA more indicative of efforts, coupled with a great deal of luck. In Penny’s nine starts, Boston batters have averaged 6.4 runs per game. He could be the beneficiary of more run support with the BoSox 10-3 versus left-hand starters.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The series concludes with a battle of young port-siders going head to head. Boston’s Jon Lester (3-5, 6.07) has been a disappointment, continually finding too much of the plate and getting the ball up, as teams are hitting .307 against him this season. His ERA is over seven on the road, though he is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in six career starts against the Blue Jays. Ricky Romero (2-1, 3.08) is the Toronto hurler and the 24-year old is known as more of ground ball pitcher. In 26 1/3 innings, he has better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Like most young pitchers, he throws much better at home, with 1.38 ERA. Romero generates fastball in the low-90’s, with a good curve. He’ll have to keep his wits about him, since the Red Sox come north of the border 10-3 OVER against lefties on the road.

Game 3 Edge: Toronto

Everything would seem to favor Boston in this series, having better pitchers facing a slumping team. The Red Sox pitchers haven’t exactly performed well and the Toronto pitchers have been much more effective on home turf. These teams have split last 18 contests at the Rogers Centre, thus expect a hotly-contested series, especially with Blue Jays having been swept. In the end, the Red Sox record against left-hander starters and having better bullpen make the difference.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Boston -125, Toronto -105

3DW Edge Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 2-4