What needs to happen for Lakers or Nuggets to win

Thus far the Western Conference Finals have been three hotly contested games. The visiting team has covered each contest, emerging with two victories. Here are observations from the perspective of both teams in which they could win and cover the spread or fall flat on their collective faces and come up short, being disappointed. One thing both teams are showing signs of is fatigue, which might be the biggest factor of all, especially in the fourth quarter.

Denver’s Carmelo Anthony was either too geeked or showed signs of wearing down in Game 3. Anthony got to the line plenty of times in converting 12 of 14 free throws; however had only four baskets on 13 attempts. The pull-up jump shots is there any time he wants it, Carmelo just needs to take it more in rhythm, squared to the rim instead of having body tilted. If ‘Melo does this, no reason Denver doesn’t move to 13-1 ATS in postseason.

Kenyon Martin and Chauncey Billups are playing at very high level, with the occasional poor choice in shot selection or judgment being the only negative. Martin has to make his wide open shots and Billups has to be a little more selective in taking three-points (as does J.R. Smith), since 5 for 27 as a team from behind the arc is settling on offense too much, instead of working for better shots. The Nuggets are 23-13 ATS after failing to cover the number.

Denver must keep taking the ball to the rim and frontcourt players must be alert to receive passes or crash the boards on missed shots. The Nuggets did not display the same energy at home they showed at Los Angeles, if they expect to tie up series, George Karl’s team has to out-work the Lakers.

One can only presume the Denver spent a lot of time working on side out in-bound plays. The Nuggets are 17-6 ATS in revenge mode.

After wondering about Trevor Ariza's skills, Ariza is starting to look like a former Laker, who contributed a great deal, just in different ways, A.C. Green. Ariza does solid job as straight-up defender, with long, lean body and has knack for tipping balls and creating offense off of defensive plays. Though not a consistently good long shooter, he’s growing in confidence deep and when he takes flight for dunks, get out of his way, help making the Lakers treacherous 8-1 ATS underdog.

If the other Lakers players didn’t have Kobe Bryant to push, pull and drag them at various points throughout games, would Los Angeles be more than a .500 team? Bryant’s unquenchable thirst for victory forces his teammates to ride along, even when body language suggests other feelings. Kobe’s relentless pursuit of victory is why the Lakers have a chance to go up 3-1 in series and are 37-23 ATS playing against teams with 60 to 70 percent win percentage over the last two seasons.

The Lakers are more often than necessary too slow in transition defense and have to be more alert to that fact. Giving away easy points in tight games is a waste. Pau Gasol must work a little harder to establish position on Nene and Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom must occupy Chris Anderson more on the opposite block and be more productive as scorers and rebounders.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Denver by 4.5-points, with the total at series low 208.5. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS after allowing 100 points or more four straight games and 13-3 UNDER when trailing in playoff series. L.A. is 12-4 ATS on the road off a road win and has played UNDER in eight straight conference final games.

It was extremely rare to see Kobe as tired as he looked at the end of Game 3 and you have to wonder if the team’s 11 for 46 shooting from behind the arc was contributing factor. Both are putting out max effort and with the pressure of the situation, this can be draining.

Game 4 is at Pepsi Center again starting at 9:05 Eastern on ESPN.