Breakup the Nationals! That’s what New York, San Diego and Milwaukee are thinking. The Mets and Padres lost series to Washington last week on the road and Milwaukee could become their third straight victim with a victory either tonight or tomorrow. The Nationals have won four in a row and six of eight, picking up seven units of profit for the shrewd sports bettor.The Nationals are ninth in runs scored in the National League at 4.4 per game and are hotter than scalding water from the plate, averaging 9.5 runs during this winning streak, batting .342 as a team. Washington’s pitching staff has many faults and several ghastly numbers, however, they have held six of last eight opponents to four or less runs.
Washington, honestly (those two words are an oxymoron) should have a better record than 32-68 (-30.3 units), but a group of young starters are going to make mistakes as part of the growing process. Where things really fall apart is when the bullpen has gotten involved.
These non-starters have themselves accounted for 30 losses, while gaining only 11 victories. They have collective ERA of 5.24, having allowed 325 base hits in just over 309 innings, plus walking 173 more batters. Washington is the only team in the Major Leagues with a save percentage below .500, at 44.1 percent, blowing 19 saves in 34 attempts.
This month has been a full-blown disaster for Milwaukee, with seven wins in 23 games, which has seen them drift downwardly to fourth place in the NL Central, after starting July in first place. Brewers’ batters for the most part are holding up their end of the bargain, totaling 10 or more hits in 13 contests this month, but the pitching staff deserves a Dick Enberg “Oh my”.
Milwaukee has lost seven of last nine contests and no wonder, since the pitching staff has ERA of almost seven (6.81), with starting pitchers slightly worse, surrendering 6.89 earned runs and 10 home runs during this time span.
Tonight’s starter Manny Parra, has made a season long contribution to Milwaukee’s below .500 mark (49-51, -6.5 units) with 4-8 record. Parra has ERA of 6.42 and the Brew Crew has won exactly 25 percent of the left-hander’s starts (4-12) in 2009.
Many sports bettors don’t have the cold detachment of the oddsmakers to create a line objectively, based on a body of work, not just recent trends. This is why DiamondSportsbook.com for example has Milwaukee as -195 money line favorites, despite many reasons not to play the Brewers. Here is one outstanding reason to back the Brewers tonight.
Play Against road teams with average offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a faulty NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with a bad bullpen, whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season.
How this system has proven to work is the road club will return to typical numbers they produce. The opposing teams starting pitcher could well have better outing against an ordinary offensive club and if the game is close in the later innings, the road team’s bullpen will probably find a way to lose the game.
Dating back to when Madeleine Albright became first female Secretary of State of the United States (1997), this system is 34-8, 81 percent. In fact, this system has been especially lethal in the last five years with 20-3 record, with average winning margin of almost two runs.
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