New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.