Indy favored without all weaponry on Monday night

Former divisional rivals will square off on Monday night football when Miami hosts Indianapolis. The teams haven’t met since 2006 and quarterback Peyton Manning, who works and studies as diligently as any player in the game, is being thrown into an uncomfortable situation. Manning was already starting the season without one of his mainstays, Marvin Harrison, now will be without Anthony Gonzalez who replaced him in the starting lineup.

Gonzalez, will be out of the lineup for at least two weeks and as many as two months due to sprained right knee ligaments suffered last week against Jacksonville. That means Manning will be throwing to unfamiliar targets Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie.

At home in the opener, the Colts thoroughly outplayed the Jaguars, outgaining them 365-228 in total yards, but won just 14-12. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a win and no-cover spot.

Miami’s key strength last season was ability to play mistake-free football, the question arises after going from 1-15 to 11-5 division champions in one season, are they possibly somewhere in between after turning the ball over four times last week. It should be noted the Dolphins started 0-2 last season and is 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS against the Colts.

Indianapolis is a three-point favorite with a total of 42 at Sportsbook.com and they’ll face a Miami team that is 6-9 and awful 3-12 ATS at home during the regular season the last two seasons, which will be looking to snap a three-game SU & ATS skid in home openers. The Colts are 15-5 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Fins are 9-1 OVER off a road loss.

Indianapolis covers if they can force Miami to continue to make turnovers. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are noted for disrupting the quarterback and with an immobile target like Chad Pennington, could raise a great deal of havoc. It might be time to bag the “stretch” running play in the Colts offense. Manning seems to have a more difficult getting the ball to the backs and the offensive line hasn’t been able to sustain the blocks long enough for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to hit the holes. The runners appear better as one-cut-and-go backs. The Indy defense will see a true “wildcat” offense for the first time and must contain whatever elements and wrinkles the Dolphins might have in store. The Colts are 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its September road assignments and 15-8 ATS road chalk of three-points or less.

Miami covers if the offensive line establishes itself. Last week top pick T Jake Long was whipped repeatedly by Atlanta’s defense ends, in allowing two sacks and getting no push in the running game. The Colts front is better than the Falcons, meaning the Dolphins have to run the ball to set up play-action passes by Pennington and specialty packages. Miami’s back seven has to cover up Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, making Manning throw to receivers he’s unfamiliar with or dump-offs to running backs for short gains. Smack Addai early, since his enthusiasm for taking shots has waned since his rookie season. The Fins are 7-3 ATS taking on winning teams.

The matchup marks the very first Monday Night football game that was played on this exact date in 1970.

Monday Night Angles – Road favorites like the Colts are 13-3 ATS when favored by three to four points the last seven years. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS vs. non-division opponents, while Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home dog dating back 29 years.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.