Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It’s not panic time in New England, however things are amiss. Tom Brady is just like the rest of us, after being away from your job after major surgery, it takes awhile to get back in the flow and what you have repaired, you don’t trust 100 percent. Sure the New York Jets brought a lot of pressure, but it’s not anything Brady hasn’t seen before. Yet it was clear, he’s not willing to hang onto the ball the extra tick and has made throws the last two weeks that are un-Brady like. Tough tilt with 2-0 Atlanta next.

What’s the biggest difference in the Jets; they have a coach that believes in them. Yes, Mark Sanchez has played well, but Rex Ryan has convinced his players they are good and gives them the freedom to succeed. That never happened under ol’ happy pants Eric Mangini. By the way, how good is cornerback Derrelle Revis playing? He’s been matched up primarily against Andre Johnson and Randy Moss the last two weeks. The results – eight total catches for 59 yards.

The Green Bay Packers defense was shredded by Cincinnati. The worst part was Cedric “Boat Boy” Benson shredded them on the ground for 141 yards. Coach Mike McCarthy also had a bad game, giving up on the running game that included only 14 rush attempts by running backs in a contest that was either tied or a seven-point game for the first 58 minutes. Not giving more help to offensive tackle who was being destroyed by DE Antawan Odom (five sacks) was ludicrous. Pack at 0-2 St. Louis for first road game.

San Francisco has two division wins already and will be in the NFC West hunt. The 49ers have a defense that lacks big names other than LB Patrick Willis, but don’t be surprised if they are not in Top 10 all season. Offensively, Frank Gore is running with explosiveness again and Shaun Hill won’t make many plays to hurt them. Niners head to Minnesota where they are 0-7 ATS.

San Diego has line problems on both sides of the ball; unfortunately it looks like survival mode again for awhile near Mission Bay. Chargers have Miami on short week at home, however are 0-5 ATS vs the Fins.

Jay Cutler showed Bears fans why he could be great. Cutler hasn’t been in Chicago look enough to find chemistry with receivers, nevertheless against Pittsburgh he was patient and didn’t force plays, which ended up giving his team a chance to win at the end, which they did. Pittsburgh offense is among the many not finishing drives thus far. Chicago has rugged trip to Seattle next and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win.

Did you know Oakland had more first downs (6) in game-winning drive with 2:48 left on the clock, than they had in the entire rest of the game? (5) Raiders playing hard, if not eye-pleasing, could go over .500 for the first time since beginning of 2004 season with a home win over Denver this week.

Dallas was set to secure a real rarity in the NFL until Eli Manning worked magic in two-minute drill. The Cowboys almost won despite 4-0 turnover margin against them. Tony Romo might need glasses since his peripheral vision is awful picking up defensive backs at times. Next week hosting 0-2 Carolina is no bargain for Cowboys who are 4-17-1 ATS off a home loss.

What can you say about Peyton Manning after he led his team to victory. In case you haven’t heard, the Colts only had the ball for 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That's the lowest time of possession for a winning team since the NFL began tracking that statistic in the 1970s. The Indianapolis defense was on the field for 84 plays. Now they have to travel on short week, changing three time zones to Arizona for Sunday. We’ll find out if Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt is really sharp, since it makes all the sense in the world to play hurry up offense to wear down tired Colts defensive legs.

Upon further review in college football

For all the hype about USC quarterback talent, Washington’s Jake Locker is far ahead of anything the Trojans have under center. The junior was the difference-maker along with the defense that stiffened when needed. Though USC may have Top 5 talent, this is rather unemotional bunch for a Pete Carroll team. Not enough leadership within the locker room yet.

So much for Notre Dame’s improved speed and blitzing after allowing 68 points to Michigan schools. Losing Michael Floyd will impact Irish offense again; they will need offensive line and running backs to step up. BCS berth is wishful thinking right now.

Give Iowa a chance to at least cover against Penn State this week. They have good history against the Nittany Lions (7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark) and defense will make Jo Pa’s work to score points.

Nebraska did everything but win the game at Virginia Tech. They ran for over 200 yards on 5.75 yards per carry on what is looking like over-rated Hokies squad. Kudos to Tyrod Taylor for improvisational touchdown pass, yet it’s looking more obvious all the time teams that comparable or better talented teams have a real shot to defeat Va Tech. Next up hot Miami club in Big East revival match.

California might be good enough to beat USC at home in just under two weeks. Jahvid Best is the best runner in the country. The Bears defense can attack the passer and their biggest weakness on defense is at one corner, which USC quarterbacks might not be skilled enough to attack regularly. First for Cal is important matchup in Eugene, where the Ducks are 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Great setting for Minnesota at home in new stadium, which will improve home field advantage dramatically.

Purdue chewed on the scheduling sandwich and was overrun by Northern Illinois 28-21 as 11.5-point home faves. The Boilermakers were off quality loss at Oregon and have home night game with rival Notre Dame next. The Huskies rushed for 280 yards at 4.9 YPC. First win over Big Ten school for NIU in 21 years. Purdue has won four of last six at home against the Fighting Irish.

Can a team that returns ONE defensive starter really be Top 20 material? It appears so with Cincinnati’s impressive 28-18 dismantling of Oregon State on the road. If the Heisman race wasn’t about all about the hype, QB Tony Pike would be in every discussion right now. Coach Brian Kelly is about to land big time job if the Bearcats finish 9-3 or 10-2 off BCS berth. The speculation starts here, Kelly to Colorado for right contract.

Quick Hitters- Georgia will need new defensive coordinator, but have to be impressed with Bulldogs win at Arkansas. The Hogs QB Ryan Mallet has a gun, but has to become better decision-maker. ---West Virginia is doomed with Bill Stewart as coach. It will close but no cigar for the Mountaineers, with some reason why they ALMOST win against similar teams. ---Reports had Colt McCoy not feeling feel, however, mechanically he’s not sound after being one of the best last season. It appears he’s trying to live up to someone’s expectations.

Study the numbers

It was a pedestrian weekend overall in college football, with underdogs 27-25 ATS and the totals split right down the middle of the 52 games played. Most sportsbooks did quite well with two public favorites BYU and Texas failing to cover. Maybe it’s a fluke, but following totals until game time is quite profitable at the moment. In games where the total has moved three or more points in one direction, betting the trend is 39-19-1, 65.5 percent on the college gridiron. (The NFL is 4-2 on moves of 2.5-points or more)

Touchdown or greater favorites in the NFL were heinous 0-3 ATS, with favorites 7-9 overall. Home underdogs were again losers at 2-3 and are 3-6 ATS on the season.