Young Studs key in AFC East Battle

For the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, four games into the season look a little different than most anticipated. As they prepare for a division game on Monday, how these are where they are and the outcome of the game is not lost on the teams and fans alike.

New York (3-1 SU&ATS) drafted Mark Sanchez and believed he could help them right away, however very few outside the Jets locked room thought their first round pick would play this well this soon.

Yes, Sanchez did have a few rookie moments in loss to New Orleans last week, but that is to be expected and he has embraced his position in the Big Apple and has been an important cog in the wheel to New York’s fast start. The next step in Sanchez’s career development is how he bounces back from adversity, especially on the road, where the Jets are 6-0 ATS at Miami.

Coach Rex Ryan’s pressure tactics are paying dividends, with is club fourth in total defense at 277.7 yards per game and third in points allowed at 14.2. It’s of significance, Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams yielding 285 or less yards per game.

The Dolphins (1-3 SU &ATS) off last year’s complete turnaround that produced an AFC East title, expected to keep moving in the same direction. However, three straight losses to start the season were more shocking than recent pictures of Kevin Federline. Though the Dolphins run for 183.5 yards per game (1st in the NFL) they still lack explosion on offense. Part of it is how they’ve been built with Chad Pennington as the quarterback, using the running game and controlled passing. That is out the window with the former Jets QB on the shelf again, and a stronger armed Chad Henne takes over, with less actual playing experience than his counterpart Sanchez.

All division games take on added importance and this one just became more so for both teams with New England being upset at Denver Sunday. A win gives the Jets back the lead in the AFC East and a Miami victory makes it two in a row and places them just one game behind the Pats and Flyboys.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York favored by 2.5 with total of 36. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in October off a SU and ATS loss and in revenge spot against opponent (Lost to Miami 24-17 in last meeting). The Jets are 17-5 UNDER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards. The Dolphins are 19-6 UNDER after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in last game and could be in favorable situation with underdogs 8-1 ATS in Miami’s last nine pre-bye week games.

New York covers if they contain Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense. Coach Ryan has faced the Wildcat in the playoffs with Baltimore last year and attacked Brown up the middle and outside defenders stayed home to contain Brown. With cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Lito Sheppard, the Jets secondary should be able to handle ordinary Fins pass-catchers and stuff the box with run stoppers and blitz Henne like he’s seeing a green and white squadron. On offense, building an early lead is important, since that means Sanchez doesn’t have to do as much and run play action to attack Miami safeties that are much better against the run than the pass.

Miami covers if they control the line of scrimmage and maintain possession of the pigskin. Sanchez is a good rookie quarterback, but he’s not Peyton Manning. They Jets have given up 280 yards total on the ground the last two weeks, primarily outside the A and B gaps. Brown and Ricky Williams should test them. Henne has the arm to at least stretch the field beyond 10 yards, which could mean crossing patterns for solid route runners like Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to move the chains and get the secondary away from the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins are second against the rush (61 YPG), which could force the New York to throw more than they prefer. Chances are Braylon Edwards will not be as much a factor this early.

Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road last week against a team that covered at home at the same time. (18-6 ATS)