A Tuesday MAC Attack

MAC East Division combatants do business on Tuesday night on a nationally televised cable contest. Neither Bowling Green (3-5 SU& ATS) nor Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are going anywhere this season, mired in the lower dwellings of the MAC. This is especially painful for Buffalo coming off a league championship season and bowl game.

The Bulls are team that lives on the edge. Last season half of Buffalo’s 14 games were decided by six points or less and they were 4-3. In 2009, five of their games have come down to seven or less points and they are 2-3. Buffalo’s offense has to be more productive in the red zone. The Bulls are second in the MAC in total offense at 410.9 yards per game, but are a pedestrian eighth in points scored at 23.1. Buffalo needs to put up points and are 12-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

The Bulls have a terrific receiving trio in Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in school history, along with wideout Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack. What’s killing Buffalo is -7 turnover margin and a secondary loaded with backups due to injury.

Bowling Green had their two game winning streak snapped by Central Michigan in last outing. The 343 yards passing only netted 10 points, as they finished with 20 net yards rushing, which has been the story of their season. The Falcons do prefer to throw the ball; nonetheless having the worst running game in the country at 61.6 yards per game at 2.3 yards per carry has to be unacceptable.

That places all the pressure on quarterback Tyler Sheehan and receiver Freddie Barnes. Sheehan has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions and nine touchdowns. Passing teams always have a chance to cover and Bowling Green is 9-2 AT in road games over the last two seasons.

The Falcons defense allows 210.6 yards per game on the ground against teams that only average 145 YPG, making them a porous group. Buffalo’s Ike Nduka has become a solid runner after they lost standout running back James Starks before the year began. Bowling Green is 1-5 SU and ATS this season when they allow a back to run for 100 or more yards.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as 3.5-point favorite with total of 53.5. This will be just the second time the Bulls have been a favorite this season and they are 3-4 ATS all-time as MAC home favorites. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS as conference road underdogs since 2001, however 8-1 ATS as visiting dogs over the last three seasons.

ESPN2 has this MAC matchup at 7 Eastern, with the mission for each squad to win remaining last four games and possibly snag a bowl bid with 7-5. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in four meetings with Bowling Green since joining the league is 1999, with the visitor having covered three in a row.