Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)