Unbeaten Indy looks to tame Jaguars

Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a divisional rivalry and arguably some very bizarre circumstances. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two undefeated teams still walking around the NFL and they have been known to shut it down, at least partially, once their playoff determination has been made. Jacksonville is fighting to make playoffs in the AFC, despite being outscored by 52 points per game.

The Setup

The game is critical on several fronts, as Indy has clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but doesn’t want to lose momentum while trying to get healthier, while the Jaguars look to keep pace in the wildcard hunt. These teams have played a very competitive series of late, and in fact, with the Colts’ tight 14-12 win in the season opener, the visitor is on a five-game ATS winning streak. Jacksonville boasts a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark versus AFC South foes, but is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home finales. Indy is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the road in ’09, outscoring opponents 30.5-15.0 on average.

Why Watch

In wagering circles, this game created a reported firestorm of activity. Most wagering outlets opened this matchup with Indianapolis at -5 and word spread late Sunday into early Monday that the Colts were going to rest many of their star players and walking wounded on a short week. Though not officially confirmed or acknowledged, there were internet reports of huge amounts of money wagered on Jacksonville taking the line on the Jags either to pick or slightly favored.

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell came out Monday and stated that his team won’t willingly “try not to win” and “those that are healthy enough to play, will on Thursday night and the rest of the (regular) season”. This seemed to have calmed the situation and Indianapolis is listed as field goal favorite.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had 29 players listed on their injury report, including such notables as Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Jacksonville is far from 100 percent healthy and the status of cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remains questionable.

Coaches and players can talk about getting ready for the playoffs, but once the game starts and the player is dressed, the juices are flowing and they want to compete. Some Colts players may not play the whole game, however their mission at least internally is to build enough of a lead, they can come out and let the reserves finish off the win.

Another reason to check this game out is a rare scene; all the seats will be full in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with this contest an unusual sellout in northern Florida. That only helps the Jaguars be that much more ready for a must win game to keep postseason hopes alive.

Why Wager

Colts backers know how good they’ve been on the road, and though this isn’t a big rivalry for Indianapolis, they have always handled like a big brother-little brother situation and wanted to keep Jacksonville from feeling too good about themselves. Indy is 21-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite the last 17 years and is 13-3 ATS on the road after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.

The truth is Jacksonville is ordinary at best, but is one of four teams that are 7-6, fighting for that last playoff slot. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they have been a home underdog, which in part helps soothe their recent 3-12 ATS mark at home. Coach Jack Del Rio’s defense is wafer thin with all the injuries and was pushed around last week by Miami (352 yards) and they are 4-12 ATS after surrendering 350 or more yards.

Streak players have to love the UNDER is 8-0 on Thursday nights this season.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has the Colts by 3 with total lowered to 42.

What Happens

Indianapolis will look for fast start similar to what they did in 2007, when they jumped the Jaguars early on the way to a super easy 29-7 win as three-point favorites. That means Peyton Manning attacking soft corners and going for the throat in the red zone. After early season struggles in the red zone, the Colts have scored 17 touchdowns in last 23 tries inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. On defense, bottle Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard beat you thru air.

Evidently Garrard missed the meeting on ball security, as he continues to put the pigskin on the ground when pressured. Coach Del Rio has to coach up the offensive line to pound away at injury-plagued Indianapolis defense. This gives Jacksonville best chance to pull upset and opens up play-action passing game. Defensively, force Manning to hit checkdowns. This strategy makes the Colts be more patient and forces them to drive the length of the field instead of hitting killer big plays, which the Jags lack the offensive firepower to recover from.

The Outcome

3DW ratings picks Indianapolis by 11


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.