Packers at Cardinals Wagering Outlook

The Packers had not faced Arizona at any time in over three seasons, now they will be making a third trip to the desert in just over four months and a second in two weeks. Green Bay assaulted Arizona 33-7 in Week 17, as both teams came into that game with very different mindsets.

The Cardinals played with little ambition and the game plan had about as much flavor as diet dressing. Coach Ken Whisenhunt was down this road a season ago and feels he has the right pulse on his more veteran team and decided to take his lumps and live to fight a bigger battle in the week ahead.

Coach Mike McCarthy has a younger team, playing its best football of the season and chose a more aggressive stance, having his club play with more vibe. Green Bay took what Arizona was willing to give and built up 33-0 lead before calling off the dogs.

In the last wild card game of the weekend, we’ll see what approach was correct.

This will be the only matchup of the wild card team having the better record and the Packers are torrid, having won seven of eight (7-0-1 ATS). Green Bay’s running game offers more than enough to keep any defense honest and the blocking downfield has been spectacular, with Ryan Grant ripping off long touchdown runs despite slightly above average speed. The Pack is 20-7-1 ATS on the road the last several seasons.

Aaron Rodgers is seeing the field well, finding second and third receivers without holding onto the ball, which was his penchant earlier. Finding the long ball with home run hitter Greg Jennings opened up the field and TE Jermichael Finley is proving to be a tough matchup for every opponent.

In the second half of the year, DC Dom Capers 3-4 defense gelled. The players started to play instinctively instead of reacting and the blitzing of linebackers Nick Barnett and Clay Matthews really paid dividends. Charles Woodson proved to be the best all-around cornerback in football and will receive plenty of support for Defensive Player of the Year, for a team that is 8-0 ATS as a visitor when their defense forces two turnovers since 2007.

For Arizona it starts with attitude, can they once again just “turn the switch” and play great football. Over the last two years in the most meaningful games they have been able do so. On defense, they will have to super aggressive, forcing Rodgers to get rid of the ball quicker than he wants and play more press coverage in the secondary, since all four starters have good hands and have played corner at some point in their careers. DT Darnell Dockett has to control the middle of the defense like he is capable of doing so, making Packers one dimensional. The Cards are 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons.

On offense, Kurt Warner has to protect the ball and be accurate. Establish Larry Fitzgerald first in the passing game and find the mismatches against a thinned out Green Bay secondary like Pittsburgh did when they threw for over 500 yards. At some point in the first quarter, get the running game cranked up, to keep the linebackers honest and play their positions, instead of heading up field all the time. The Cards are 13-4 ATS against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers a contest.

Arizona opened as 2.5-point home favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and has been bet down to two-point underdogs, with total at 47.5. They are 18-6 ATS in home games off a home loss and 18-5 OVER after scoring 15 or less points. The Packers are playing with supreme confidence and are 12-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less and 15-2 OVER with four or more consecutive wins against the spread.