Ravens at Patriots Betting Matchup

The Baltimore Ravens, off a pair of playoffs wins a year ago, head into New England believing they can at least match that total. The Ravens are not concerned about New England being 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS) in home playoff games during the Tom Brady era. They view this as opportunity because of advantages they see for themselves.

Start with Baltimore was fifth in rushing at 137.9 yards per game and the Patriots were a pedestrian 23rd in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have both gotten hot and New England has been forced to “junk-up” its defense to increase productivity in recent weeks with mixed results.

Though the Ravens secondary finished eighth in passing defense, their cornerbacks are beatable. Fortunately for them, they will have one less weapon to deal with in Wes Welker, done for the season. That means the Baltimore can focus their attention on Randy Moss. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in road playoff games.

New England is in the postseason again after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years, though not the team of prior seasons. The Patriots were perfect at Gillette Stadium this season (5-3 ATS), which included a hard-fought 27-21 win in Week 4 over Baltimore.

With Welker out, the underneath role falls to rookie Julian Edelman to be the slot receiver. Though Edelman has been productive when called upon this season, he lacks the skill and savvy of Welker. Having played quarterback in college, he doesn’t have the experience to find seams and read coverage’s as well. Expect the New England game plan to include screens to running backs and more throws to the tight ends to make up for Welker’s loss. The Pats are 23-5 ATS playing against a marginal winning team (51 to 60 win percentage).

Bill Belicheck’s defense gave up 144 yards rushing to Houston last week, but run stoppers Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren had the week off and should be refresher. In the last five weeks, the Patriots have been generating a better pass rush off the edges; particularly from LB Tully Banta-Cain. Derrick Burgess had a good game last week for the Pats; expect to see more of him since Joe Flacco is not always quick to feel the pressure from the perimeter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Brady Bunch as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 43.5. The Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS following a SU loss and are is 17-6 UNDER in playoff games. Achieving a semblance of offensive balance will be crucial and quick hitting plays running off-tackle.

Baltimore is 21-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game and the offensive line has been mowing down the opposition to the tune of 211.7 yards the last month. If they move the pile on New England, they can exploit an untrustworthy New England secondary. With journeyman Leigh Bodden their best cover guy, even an ordinary pass-catching contingent like the Ravens can do damage.

The Birds are 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of seven points or less.