The Valley Title Game Preview

The Valley’s postseason tournament has gone according to script, with the top two teams meeting for the champions. Regular season champion Northern Iowa (27-4, 20-10 ATS) has given two defensive clinics, holding Drake and Bradley to each 40 points apiece in winning by 15 and 17 points respectively. The Panthers are 12-6 ATS after holding an opponent to under 60 points this season.

Coming into the tournament, the Panthers were second in the country in fewest points allowed at 58.4 per game and have done nothing to disprove the notion somebody in the NCAA Tournament is going to have to shoot well to beat them.

Northern Iowa is really playing for pride today before a national televised audience on CBS starting at 2:00 Eastern, since they are going to the Big Dance regardless. However, coach Ben Jacobson will talk about pride, winning both the regular season and Arch Madness tournament and having this special group of players be back to back champions. One aspect that won’t discussed but is very much on Jacobson’s mind, knowing with a win, his squad would be a deserving sixth seed based on the fact they have been in the lower echelons of the Top 25 a good portion of the season.

Wichita State (25-8, 13-13 ATS) is not a lock the NCAA Tournament and needs a win to punch their ticket. The Shockers have held off Missouri State and Illinois State for wins and covers and are 10-2 and 7-4 ATS off a spread victory.

For Wichita State to pull the upset, junior J.T. Durley has to avoid foul trouble, something he has not been able to do the last couple of days. The Shockers need his 11.5 points per game and five rebounds and can’t beat UNI with him playing cheerleader on the bench.

Teams are also putting defensive pressure on point guard Clevin Hannah and leading scorer (12.3 PPG) to disrupt Shockers offense and keep him from scoring. Opponents are playing him with bigger guards (Hannah is 5’11 155), using their strength to try to push him around. Hannah has responded by driving to the basket and passing to his big men. Nonetheless, he has 11 points in two games. Wichita State is 7-3 ATS against teams with winning percentage of .600 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Northern Iowa as the favorite and they have split with the Shockers, winning at home 59-56 and losing on the road 60-51, failing to cover in either instance. Wichita State could be the play since the underdog is 11-3 ATS in previous 14 meetings.

The total is important to consider also, since the tourney this season is 5-3 UNDER, which is consistent with the five prior years of 30-15 UNDER.