Baseball Betting Numbers Change Dramatically

Just like the woman in the infomercial putting her hands together for “The Clapper”, oddsmakers have turned the switch in making dramatic changes in the baseball money lines they are now distributing. These are deep sweeping changes compared to last season, which can have a dramatic impact on how one wagers on baseball. What has happened and why?

Many bettors prefer to stay away from favorites at -150 or higher and will succumb to having to make alterations after the All-Star break as the money lines steadily increase on those in pennant races. Most bettors in the circles I travel will to up to -170 limit, before passing altogether or start wagering on run lines.

Through the first 21 days of August, the source used for opening lines, has seen a gargantuan total of 59 baseball games at -200 or higher. Compare that figure with 29 for the entire month of August in 2007 and you can understand what this year has brought us. Why the big change this season?

Gave professional gambler Sal from the Left Coast Connection a call to see if he could explain what is going on. “Douglas my friend, a number of factors, go into this vexing issue”, Sal said. “One of the biggest factors leading up to this is how general managers shifted their thinking this year. Players like C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden were moved long before the trade deadline, as were a number of other players. This helped oddsmakers learn sooner about how a player or players would fit into teams and what chemistry issues might arise. For the most part, every acquisition any contending team has made has turned out to be a positive and squares have been betting these teams with regularity. This accounts for the rise in money line numbers so quickly.”

Along Sal’s thought process, teams that would normally fight to stay in pennant races until Labor Day, have hit the eject button on the season extremely early and have made call-ups already this month. Cleveland, after being one game away from World Series last year, bailed faster than a poker player holding a 2 and 4 hole cards in differing suits. Detroit threw in the towel early, not feeling they had a 2007 Colorado Rockies September run in them. Even a Steinbrenner named Hank, all but gave Hillary Clinton concession speech in the last 10 days, in talking about 2009, while the Yankees are still in wild card chase.

How does a baseball bettor combat this onslaught of mammoth numbers? We first talked to Mark Borchgard, chief handicapper at Basewinner.com. “When the numbers get this high (-200 or higher), I like to parlay them, but would only do so if I really liked the game. Just this past Sunday, I matched the Yankees and Minnesota together for an easy parlay winner. It is understood you have to win both games, which has a certain amount of risk, but better to make a one unit play on parlay number than accept the risk of losing at -200 or higher money line, with light payout on a winner.”

Veteran handicapper Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com has a different take to help bettors bust big numbers. “We’re seeing more of the -300 favorites this year than in the past. My philosophy is to make a case for the underdog or don’t chase the large favorites. The same pitcher that is a -300 pitcher today was -200 a month ago. The oddsmakers are compensating for this change in position, by the condition of team the pitcher plays for, by standing in the pennant race.” Mark went on to add, “In playing large underdogs, check the current form of pitchers, the condition of the team they’re playing and if they are not in losing streak and there is nothing wrong with this team (the underdog), consider fading these large favorites and if you do this until season’s end, you should have a chance to show a net profit.”

After talking to Steve Makinen from StatFox about this article, he happened to be talking to Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson afterwards and asked him about what is occurring this season in this regard to baseball betting lines. Mickey had this to say, ".....no parity this year, it will get worse as the season moves forward, you will start to see games at -400. Books are getting destroyed, as the public is jumping on the bandwagon and riding these favorites."

Sage advise from those who make their living betting and following baseball’s ever changing landscape, as we head down the stretch of the pennant races.