NFL Preseason Games that Flip-Flop

Often in the NFL preseason, a number of spreads end up far different from original number. For example, a home team starts out as a three-point favorite and gets flipped over to the role of underdog by two points. Why would there be such a huge turnaround of money moving lines for a meaningless exhibition contest?

The most obvious reason is the amount of money being wagered on one side. More of your hardcore bettors take part in preseason action, since they want to start making wagers and test the waters. Generally speaking, these bettors tend to be somewhat more astute and are less inclined to bet just favorites. At the same time, sharps come fully prepared with information, using the internet to follow the daily progress of training camps. Coaches are much more open during this time and useful, true insights are just a few mouse clicks away.

Another factor is figuring determination. As opposed to the regular season, where confusing signals and patterns arise, August football can be pretty cut and dry. If a team is off a dreadful performance, the coaching staff will undoubtedly be unmerciful in riding a team hard in practice. By this time of training camp, the players are tired of the long and often physical workouts, beating their heads against the same players day after day. A bad loss is magnified right now, because with no real games up next, the coaches can micro-manage the smallest details. At this point, the players can sense what the coaches want and will bring full-focused effort into next game, beating opponent and covering the spread. This type of information is easy to read between the lines when a coach will talk about “a good week of practice” after losing the week prior.

It will also go the other way for teams. Take a team that has had a very good camp, the coaches have generally been pleased with effort and progress and have intentionally rode squad hard during the hot summer period. As a quiet reward, the head coach backs of the pedal a touch, going 80 percent instead of full throttle. Possibly the coach wants to use this time to determine final roster cuts and have the club refocus for the start of the regular season. In this scenario, word has leaked out about softer practices and this team might be ripe for the taking after satisfying win, especially if opponent is off a loss.

Injuries of course play a role, as coaches don’t want to risk a dinged up player in a meaningless affair. This is often an area of overreaction, as regulars see little playing time until this week anyway. What can be exposed is lack of depth as various positions, with deeper squads mounting fourth quarter comebacks to amazingly cover spreads of seemingly lost contests.

An old school method that still holds value among bettors is teams off a win by 10 or more points or a loss by double digits. This plays into the motivational aspect of teams, desiring to play better immediately or satisfied with previous effort. Since this way of thinking has been around for years, the results have been steady and bettors will often hone in on these types of contests.

On Saturday, four games fit the criteria of football games that flipped.

The New York Giants went from -1 to +3 at most sportbooks, as they prepare to face cross-locker room rival the Jets. Cincinnati with their wide receiver injuries opened at -2.5 and has been switched to +2.5. In yet another battle in the Sunshine State, those betting football have taken a shine to Jacksonville on the road, moving them from one-point underdogs to three-point favorites. Finally, in a CBS televised contest, Minnesota started at -1.5 and fell to +3 against Pittsburgh with uncertain status of Tarvais Jackson, who suffered a sprained right MCL in last week's 23-15 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

These flip-flops have meant little to bettors overall. Since the beginning of the decade, home favorites turned around to underdogs are 16-15-2 ATS and home dogs spun around to favorites are 11-9-1 ATS. Nothing of consequence shows up this week to play, however keep next week in mind, as home teams flipped from either the favorite or underdog roles are 8-3 ATS the last week of the preseason the last eight years.