Georgia Bulldogs # 1 - No Chance

The college football writer’s poll was released last week with the Georgia Bulldogs ranked the number one team in the land for 2008. There are a plethora of reasons to back the Bulldogs to win the national championship. Head coach Mark Richt’s club returns 17 starters from what was arguably the best team in the country at the end of last season and brings seven game winning streak into this season. Talent wise, the Bulldogs can easily lineup with any team in the country and the case can rather easily be made they are truly better man for man across the board. Then why not enough love for being the top team in the FBS, this is one only Tim Meadows, The Ladies Man from Saturday Night Live might understand.
The Georgia schedule stands out like a shiny new Lexus about to compete at the local demolition derby and others are paying attention also. At many sportbooks, USC is the top betting choice to be national champs (West Coast betting bias) at +350, with Ohio State second at +400 and the Bulldogs and Oklahoma next at +500.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants even chimed in with LVSC Chief Operating Officer Ken White offering up the Bulldogs as number seven, instead of number one. “I can remember in 2005 that everyone thought Tennessee was going to be one of the best teams in the country (#3 AP), they were coming off a 10-3 season and returned 17 starters. The Vols had a monster schedule, playing four ranked opponents on the road and wound up struggling to a 5-6 record,” White said. One difference that should be noted, AP writers thoughts are based on where they believe they believe the teams should start the season, with LVSC rationale being where they should end up to conclude the season.

There is a series of obstacles that await Richt’s bunch and most have to do with the 2008 schedule that has more potential troubles than season four of MTV’s “The Hills”. The listed road games are at South Carolina, Arizona State, LSU, Kentucky and Auburn. Three of these teams are in the preseason Top 25, with the ol’ ball coach Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks lurking a spot or two just out of range.

South Carolina handed Georgia one of its two losses last season in Athens 16-12, as three-point underdogs. The Gamecocks have their best team since Spurrier arrived in Columbia and he welcomes back 10 starters on defense. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by six or less points. Georgia is used to playing in the heat and humidity of the South, nonetheless the desert features all kinds of critters and assuredly Dennis Erickson will have his Arizona State team primed for the Dawgs on national television. This affair ends up being sandwiched between South Carolina and Alabama.

After a bye week, the SEC gauntlet begins in earnest. On October 11, Tennessee arrives to play between the hedges. The Vols hammered the Bulldogs 35-14, which ended up being Georgia’s last defeat. Certainly revenge will be on players minds, especially with a week off and they are 12-6-1 ATS with extra week of preparation in the regular season. Vanderbilt is listed as sacrificial lamb for homecoming. Next up, a sojourn to Baton Rouge.

Georgia figures to be favored in Columbia, SC and Tempe, AZ, however based on what we know today, the Dawgs will be dogs at LSU. This is not a bad thing, as smart bettors are attuned to Richt’s teams being expertly prepared on the road, as they are 22-3 SU in true visitor’s role. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS as road underdogs and this should be quite a battle. The following week is in Jacksonville, where the world largest bourbon convention convenes this side of Jack Daniels. A dog is a feast for an alligator and Georgia has been just that for Florida with 3-15 (6-11-1 ATS) record the last 18 seasons. Coach Richt went against personality type in this contest a year ago, setting the table for late season run with 42-30 victory. Florida has as much pure talent as Georgia and has revenge in mind after last season.

A natural letdown has to be expected at Kentucky, after two such emotion filled games meaning the possibility exists of having to work harder than expected in Lexington. The last SEC game is on the plains of Alabama in Auburn. The Tigers are always tough at home and will have witnessed in the film room the second half lambasting they received last year at Athens, losing 45-20, as the Bulldogs wore black jersey’s for the first time in what is considered the modern era of the football program.

After another week of richly deserved rest, the final conflict is annual battle with Georgia Tech. Though the Dawgs have had no problems with the Yellow Jackets in winning seven straight (5-1-1 ATS), this will mark first home game in six very strenuous weeks.

Don’t think for a second scheduling doesn’t matter, Tennessee was mentioned from a few seasons ago and a similar thing happened to USC last year, coming up flat and mistake prone in losing at home to Stanford and latter succumbing to Oregon on the road in a loaded Pac-10 in 2007.

The make-up of the roster is different than anticipated already before the first game. Sophomore offensive tackle Trinton Sturdivant is out for the season with a severe injury to his left knee after earning All-SEC raves as a freshman. Senior FB Brannan Southerland is expected to miss up to five games recovering from foot surgery in June. His loss matters, since he was often the lead blocker for talented running back Knowshon Moreno. A few other off-the-field irregularities have led to suspensions that will impact depth and cohesion early in the year.

Despite a wonderfully talented squad with a distinguished head coach, look for Georgia to fall short of projections and drop a couple of contests. The possibility exists they might not even win division if one of the losses is to Florida. Expecting another two-loss team from the SEC to be national champs is just too much to ask. Find another team to wager on, since this one could be dog-gone disappointing to the locals.