American League Series Preview

If familiarity breeds contempt, than this has the making of a special American League pennant series. Start with the fact these are division partners, hard to call them rivals until this year with the history of the two clubs. In the first 13 games between these teams, the home team won every time. Tampa Bay finally broke the string on Sept. 9 in Boston and won the next day also, winning a series in Beantown for the first time in their existence (1-23-2). Later in the month, the Red Sox won for the first time in Tampa and many believed this is where they would roll past the Rays and win the division, instead Joe Maddon’s young team stood up and won the next two games, effectively holding serve and later captured the AL East crown.

Having seen how well Tampa Bay played all year, it’s easy to forget how incredibly bad this franchise has been since its inception, thus a little history lesson. Until this year, Tampa Bay had never been above .500; in fact they had never won 71 games in a season. Just two seasons ago, the Rays tied the major league record (Philadelphia Athletics 1943) for fewest road wins after July 1, winning three times in last 39 games played. On top of that, they led the major leagues in the number of leads blown with 94 and set a new American League record by losing 60 games that they had led. The Rays led in 121 games, but won only 61. Based on its putrid past and playing in baseball’s toughest division, Tampa had about as much chance of winning the AL East as the world’s fattest man getting married (he is).

The Boston Red Sox are the best example of what a well run organization looks like in baseball today. The Boston Red Sox were New England’s version of the Chicago Cubs for decades. The “Sox” had several close calls over the years to be World Series champions, but in the end, always came up short. That was until 2004, with a new ownership group in place, Red Sox management took what appeared to be huge risk in hiring 28-year old Theo Epstein to be their general manager the prior year. Epstein and the rest of the franchise put a plan together to play a certain style of baseball and trade away players that didn’t fit or trade for those that did. The farm system was immediately revamped to reflect this culture and in short, this has worked to near perfection with two World Series titles in four years.

These two teams had a pretty good baseball fight in June, by the sports standards and bad blood was spilled at least verbally by both teams. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.97) will pitch Game 1 in Tampa, mostly because how well he has pitched on the road with 9-0 record and Boston winning 11 of his 13 starts. Josh Beckett (14-12, 4-12) will follow, with Red Sox manager Terry Francona saying Beckett is healthy and was just rusty against Los Angeles. Back home, baseball’s best postseason starting pitcher of late Jon Lester (17-6, 3.01) will go and Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13) will start Game 4.

Manager Maddon will go with the rotation he had for the ALDS, with James Shields (15-8, 3.58) leading off at Tropicana Field, where he and Rays are 15-3 this year. Left-hander Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48) is next being their most experienced member on the staff. When they travel to Boston, Matt Garza (11-10 3.82) will start Game 3 despite being 4-7 on the road. Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34) will complete the initial go-round.

My Take: Because Boston is so patient at the plate, their approach can be demoralizing to competitors, ask the Angels about the number of two strike hits and two out runs the Red Sox scored in the ALDS. Because Tampa Bay pitchers don’t have overpowering stuff other than Kazmir, Boston will have their chances if they continue same approach. Tampa Bay actually is similar to the Red Sox in how they work at the plate, with a high walk total. The Rays hit more home runs and can make things happen on the base paths with 142 steals this year.

The Red Sox are tough, intelligent team that understands how to win. Their starting pitching beyond Matsuzaka and Lester is a question mark coming into this series. Will Tampa Bay’s youth catch up to them? This team is no fluke and with a couple of guys hitting home runs like B.J. Upton or Evan Longoria, anything becomes possible. Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8, however the “been there, done that” approach of Boston wins out in a long series.

Series odds from Bookmaker.com: Boston -133, Tampa Bay +113

Friday October 10
Boston (Matsuzaka) at Tampa Bay (Shields) 8:37 EDT

Saturday October 11
Boston (Beckett) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 8:07 EDT

Monday October 13
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Boston (Lester) 4:37 EDT

Tuesday October 14
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Boston (Wakefield) 8:37 EDT

Thursday October 16
Tampa Bay at Boston if necessary

Saturday October 18
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary

Sunday October 19
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary


Offensive – American League
Runs scored -Boston 2nd Tampa Bay 9th
Home Runs -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 5th
Total Bases -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 8th
Slugging Ptc. -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay8th
Walks -Boston 7th Tampa Bay 2nd
On base Ptc. -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 5th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Strikeouts -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 3rd
Walks -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 8th
On base Ptc. -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Putouts -Boston 5th Tampa Bay 1st
Errors -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay 4th