Betting Football in Rearview Mirror

With how the year has started, beginning to wonder if we will see a return to 2006 with college football teams having lost exactly three games against the spread. This is subject which has been followed the previous four seasons. In 2005 and 2007, the results were mediocre with these spread losers 29-28 and 27-23 ATS respectively. Two seasons ago was a watershed year to play against these teams with 16-33 ATS record and this season they have started 4-7 against the spread. This is worth keeping a close eye on. Of similar interest for sports bettors is teams off three consecutive covers are 5-8-1 ATS in next outing.

Delving into another area, we look at all college football teams off a home underdog win in next game. Thus far in 2008, these teams are 4-10 ATS. After being around .500 in previous seasons, FBS squads were 23-29 ATS last year and the trend continues in an election year (not that has anything to do with it) to play against these teams. To be honest, this is what I thought it would be every year, with college age football players having a “football hangover” from winning as home dogs and coming up flat, being slightly overrated the next week.

Do’s

The up and down lethargy associated with the Georgia Tech football program has been replaced by crisp, hard-nosed, solid football at the Atlanta based university. Head coach Paul Johnson has brought a disciplined style of organization, with different expectations in his first season. Johnson’s run option attack is chewing up 290.2 yards per game, which is fifth in the country. Yes, the Yellow Jackets still turn the ball over too much learning the intricacies of how to run the offense. However, they can overcome this problem by having the 14th ranked defense that has more than one player in the defensive line with NFL ability. This is a Play On team, already at 4-0 ATS.

I know I’ve been over this more than once and you might be getting sick of reading about it, but it bears repeating, since it’s such a winner. With not many games remaining, the Big East is 6-21 ATS in non-conference play. This is so bad it breaks up the day for Wall Street workers, looking for something to cheer them up. In an article I wrote on this subject, I also mentioned once conference play started, underdogs would hold real value, as the league as whole is right with “Lipstick Jungle” when it comes to rankings. To date, all four favorites in Big East action are 0-4 ATS.

How can you not like a team that scores 56.4 points a game and averages 596 yards a game? The Tulsa Golden Hurricane was uncertain quantity coming into this campaign, after losing three-year starting quarterback Paul Smith. Nine other offensive players returned and new starter David Johnson has fit in better than John Stamos on ER. At 5-0 and 5-0 ATS, the remainder of the schedule is doable, though hardly certain. Even if Arkansas is down, they are still an SEC team and will present Tulsa problems with their speed in early November. Two weeks later if they are 9-0, a trip to Houston might be the last major obstacle for an unbeaten season. Scoring 50 points a game will help any team cover spreads.

Don’ts

You’ve heard the expression “sometimes things get worse before they get better”; this would apply in Pullman, WA, home of Washington State. After four non-productive seasons with Bill Doba as head coach, Cougars brass picked up the services of Paul Wulff, who had built a strong program at FCS Eastern Washington. Dismiss the 48-9 romp over Portland State and the Wazzou offense has scored 50 total points in the five contests. On the way, the defense has allowed 48.2 points a game, which means they have lost by 38 PPG against schools in BCS conferences. Finding another win or two and cover might require the services of “The Mentalist”.

The fortunes of North Texas have plummeted since winning the Sun Belt Conference four years in a row and going to New Orleans Bowl from 2001-04. Starting in 2005, the Eagles are 7-35, 14-26 ATS since that time. How bad are things in Denton, TX, the former Mean Green is next to last in the country in points scored at 13 a game and dead last in points allowed at a ghastly 52.2 per game. It would not seem prudent to wager on this sad Sun Belt squad.

NFL Betting Thoughts

In the NFL, time zone travel continues to be an issue, as teams flying two or more time zones away from home are 4-8 ATS. Home dog lovers continue to take their lumps at 7-14 against the oddsmaker. Thus far real money can be made finding short favorites right near game time. Any NFL team that is favored by three or less points is 20-10-1 ATS thus far.

What’s the problem with San Diego? Start with all those years LaDainian Tomlinson never played in the preseason. When he was younger, his body could respond to hits more quickly and he could get in a groove swiftly. Last year L.T. started slowly and couldn’t go later in the AFC title game. Again trying to protect the 29-year old running back, who saw no action in the preseason and he’s been dinged in each game. The Chargers can’t run him to set the tone of the game, forced to rely on quarterback Philip Rivers. In a league where quarterback play is so important, San Diego has the worst pass defense in the league surrendering 265.6 yards per game. Add these factors together and Norv Turner has to come up with answers quick.

In watching the Green Bay Packers, one obvious visible note, they are not playing hard and tackling worse. I would like to throw kudos to John Madden for bringing up the lack of effective tackling Green Bay defenders perform. In the Atlanta loss, at least a 15 times, Packer defensive players were in position to make tackles for little or no gain for Falcons runners and instead of wrapping up, they tried to use a shoulder and were bumped off. With injuries piling up and Aaron Rodgers trying to play with a bad wing, the Pack is quickly developing as a play against team.

Enough all ready, sit Jon Kitna! He’s done as a starting quarterback. Let Drew Stanton or somebody else play on a team that will need a fresh start in 2009.

What does a Super Bowl win do for your confidence? Ask Eli Manning. The Giants and Manning were strictly middle of the road in passing yards per attempt in the mid six’s during his career, now Eli is leading a team that is at 7.5 YPA and sixth in this category. Hard to bet against the “other” Manning and his team right now.