It was probably around 1995 when I first came across this betting system for college football. For some reason it stuck in my mind, probably because it always made sense, though for some reason never committed it the vast amount of material I keep track of in all the various sports. In fact, one part of the original system I found is not an aspect of this equation, strictly because it’s been forgotten. As you will read, this will have no affect on how profitable this college football betting system can be.Like most of the systems that I uncover, I prefer to keep in simple, not having too much to clutter my simpe mind or think about with my University of Phoenix degree (just kidding). What we want is a clean system, easy to understand and an easy way to track down the information. Here it is:
Look to Play On a college football team that allows 275 or less yards per game, particularly in the role of underdog.
The first part of this system makes all the sense in the world, since the number of teams we’re talking about is very few from year to year. The old cliché, “defenses win championships” holds up, even in weekly situations, because if any team is holding opponents to 275 or fewer yards, they should be in almost any game they are playing in.
To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season, not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However, during the course a season, starting this week, you should have confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially make such a wager.
Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at 11-2 that season. The only time they were an underdog was against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the regular season and in the Orange Bowl.
Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama, LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide (6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses. N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2 regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect 3-0 on the receiving end of points.
In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season, posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who were once against 3-0.
Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275 yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer, who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at least 30 yards per game.
It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1 against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.
In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than 275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season, Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers didn’t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good, neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for this system.
Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.
2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0
Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent
As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize Boston College probably doesn’t figure to be here for long, having played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.
Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find their watermark.
Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998. Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous. They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing. With five of last seven remaining games on the road, playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will stay with this contingent as likely as the return of “Elf” to NBC.
Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers number, with the first two winning outright.
Among the teams that fit this week are LSU as an underdog at Florida, holding teams to 262.2 yards per game and Tennessee at Georgia.
Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.
To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season, not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However, during the course a season, starting this week, you should have confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially make such a wager.
Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at 11-2 that season. The only time they were an underdog was against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the regular season and in the Orange Bowl.
Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama, LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide (6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses. N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2 regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect 3-0 on the receiving end of points.
In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season, posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who were once against 3-0.
Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275 yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer, who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at least 30 yards per game.
It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1 against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.
In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than 275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season, Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers didn’t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good, neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for this system.
Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.
2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0
Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent
As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize Boston College probably doesn’t figure to be here for long, having played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.
Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find their watermark.
Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998. Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous. They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing. With five of last seven remaining games on the road, playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will stay with this contingent as likely as the return of “Elf” to NBC.
Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers number, with the first two winning outright.
Among the teams that fit this week are LSU as an underdog at Florida, holding teams to 262.2 yards per game and Tennessee at Georgia.
Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.
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